UCSA
vs
Probiy Horodenka
Garuda Lions Prediction: UCSA
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.21.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka
| Probability | UCSA | Draw | Probiy Horodenka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.7% | 21.4% | 18.9% |
| Market | 43.0% | 27.6% | 29.4% |
| Final | 47.2% | 26.1% | 26.7% |
| Edge | +4.2% | -1.5% | -2.6% |
Why UCSA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.21.
- The market prices UCSA below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.5% per unit staked (our 47.2% × 2.15 − 1).
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka match preview
UCSA faces Probiy Horodenka in a Persha Liga match on November 8, 2026. According to our model, UCSA has a 60% probability of winning, while the chances for a draw and a Probiy Horodenka victory stand at 21% and 19%, respectively. The expected goals for UCSA are 2.25, compared to 1.21 for Probiy Horodenka, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, UCSA has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Probiy Horodenka's form shows two wins in their last six. The head-to-head record indicates that UCSA has not won against Probiy Horodenka in their last two encounters, with one draw and one loss. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UCSA and Probiy Horodenka expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.45
UCSA and Probiy Horodenka attack and defence ratings
UCSA
Probiy Horodenka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCSA | 47.2% | 2.12 | +4.2% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCSA | 47.2% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Probiy Horodenka | 26.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% |
| No | 36.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | UCSA win | 38.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 40.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka stats
UCSA and Probiy Horodenka recent form
| UCSA |
LWDLLD |
| Probiy Horodenka |
DLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UCSA and Probiy Horodenka season so far
UCSA record
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Probiy Horodenka record
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Probiy Horodenka | UCSA | Persha Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-27 | UCSA | Probiy Horodenka | Persha Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
UCSA vs Probiy Horodenka odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.0%, draw 27.6%, away 29.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .