Prykarpattia
vs
Yarud Mariupol'
1 – 1 Full time
Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol' overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol'
| Probability | Prykarpattia | Draw | Yarud Mariupol' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.5% | 24.9% | 60.6% |
| Market | 31.3% | 29.5% | 39.2% |
| Final | 27.1% | 28.3% | 44.6% |
| Edge | -4.2% | -1.2% | +5.4% |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Yarud Mariupol' below our published probability: +5.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Prykarpattia and Yarud Mariupol' expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Prykarpattia and Yarud Mariupol' attack and defence ratings
Prykarpattia
Yarud Mariupol'
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol': result vs prediction
Prykarpattia 1 – 1 Yarud Mariupol'
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol' markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 44.6% | 2.24 | +5.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.6% | 2.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Prykarpattia | 27.1% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 44.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 35.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 39.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-2 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.7% |
Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol' stats
Prykarpattia and Yarud Mariupol' recent form
| Prykarpattia |
LDLLDL |
| Yarud Mariupol' |
WWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Prykarpattia and Yarud Mariupol' going into this match
Prykarpattia record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol' head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | Prykarpattia | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-11 | Yarud Mariupol' | Prykarpattia | Persha Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-03 | Yarud Mariupol' | Prykarpattia | Persha Liga | 2-3 |
| 2025-03-30 | Prykarpattia | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-04 | Prykarpattia | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-29 | Yarud Mariupol' | Prykarpattia | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-23 | Prykarpattia | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 2-2 |
| 2022-09-02 | Yarud Mariupol' | Prykarpattia | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Prykarpattia vs Yarud Mariupol' odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.3%, draw 29.5%, away 39.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.91 | 3.05 | 2.33 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.05 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.15 | 2.42 |
| Marathonbet | 2.94 | 3.02 | 2.22 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .