Chernihiv
vs
Kolos Kovalivka II
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chernihiv
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II
| Probability | Chernihiv | Draw | Kolos Kovalivka II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.9% | 25.9% | 21.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 52.9% | 25.9% | 21.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Chernihiv
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.03.
Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II match preview
Chernihiv faces Kolos Kovalivka II in the Persha Liga with a probability of 53% for Chernihiv to win, while a draw stands at 26% and Kolos Kovalivka II at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Expected goals for Chernihiv are 1.74, compared to Kolos Kovalivka II's 1.03, indicating a stronger offensive outlook for the home side.
Recent form shows Chernihiv struggling with five losses in their last six matches, while Kolos Kovalivka II has also faced difficulties, managing only one win in their last six games. In their last two head-to-head encounters, each team has claimed one victory, suggesting a competitive matchup. The model indicates a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chernihiv and Kolos Kovalivka II expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Chernihiv and Kolos Kovalivka II attack and defence ratings
Chernihiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chernihiv | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chernihiv | 52.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Kolos Kovalivka II | 21.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% |
| No | 46.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chernihiv win | 29.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II stats
Chernihiv and Kolos Kovalivka II recent form
| Chernihiv |
LLWLLL |
| Kolos Kovalivka II |
LLDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chernihiv and Kolos Kovalivka II season so far
Chernihiv record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kolos Kovalivka II record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Chernihiv | Kolos Kovalivka II | Druha Liga | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-06 | Kolos Kovalivka II | Chernihiv | Druha Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.