Kolos Kovalivka II
vs
Metal Kharkiv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Metal Kharkiv
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Metal Kharkiv is the favourite, not a value bet.
Kolos Kovalivka II vs Metal Kharkiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kolos Kovalivka II vs Metal Kharkiv
| Probability | Kolos Kovalivka II | Draw | Metal Kharkiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.1% | 31.7% | 34.2% |
| Market | 31.8% | 28.0% | 40.2% |
| Final | 32.4% | 28.9% | 38.7% |
| Edge | +0.6% | +0.9% | -1.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.5% per unit staked (our 38.7% × 2.26 − 1).
Kolos Kovalivka II vs Metal Kharkiv match preview
Kolos Kovalivka II and Metal Kharkiv are set to face off in a closely contested match, with both teams having a 34% probability of winning according to our model. The likelihood of a draw stands at 32%. The most probable scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% chance of occurring. Expected goals are nearly identical, with Kolos Kovalivka II at 1.10 and Metal Kharkiv at 1.11, indicating a tight matchup.
In terms of recent form, Kolos Kovalivka II has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Metal Kharkiv has struggled, managing only one win in their last six, alongside three draws and two losses. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 38%, while both teams scoring is projected at 46%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kolos Kovalivka II and Metal Kharkiv expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Kolos Kovalivka II and Metal Kharkiv attack and defence ratings
Kolos Kovalivka II
Metal Kharkiv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kolos Kovalivka II vs Metal Kharkiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metal Kharkiv | 38.7% | 2.58 | -1.5% | 2.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.9% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 32.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Metal Kharkiv | 38.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.1% |
| No | 53.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Metal Kharkiv win | 14.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 65.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 12.3% | |
| 0-1 | 10.8% |
Kolos Kovalivka II vs Metal Kharkiv stats
Kolos Kovalivka II and Metal Kharkiv recent form
| Kolos Kovalivka II |
LDLLWW |
| Metal Kharkiv |
LLDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kolos Kovalivka II and Metal Kharkiv season so far
Kolos Kovalivka II record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
Metal Kharkiv record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kolos Kovalivka II vs Metal Kharkiv head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Kolos Kovalivka II vs Metal Kharkiv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.8%, draw 28.0%, away 40.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.86 | 3.25 | 2.26 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .