Metal Kharkiv
vs
Yarud Mariupol'
Garuda Lions Prediction: Yarud Mariupol'
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'
| Probability | Metal Kharkiv | Draw | Yarud Mariupol' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.5% | 31.0% | 43.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 25.5% | 31.0% | 43.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.28 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' match preview
Metal Kharkiv will face Yarud Mariupol' in the Persha Liga on October 23, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome are 30% for Metal Kharkiv, 33% for a draw, and 37% for Yarud Mariupol'. The expected goals for Metal Kharkiv stand at 0.97, while Yarud Mariupol' has a slightly higher expectation at 1.12. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with a probability of 12%.
In terms of recent form, Metal Kharkiv has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Yarud Mariupol' has been more consistent with three wins and two draws. Historically, in their last two encounters, Metal Kharkiv has one win and one draw against Yarud Mariupol', who has yet to secure a victory in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Metal Kharkiv and Yarud Mariupol' expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Metal Kharkiv and Yarud Mariupol' attack and defence ratings
Metal Kharkiv
Yarud Mariupol'
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metal Kharkiv | 25.5% |
| Draw | 31.0% | |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 43.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.0% |
| No | 55.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 20.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 56.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 12.8% | |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' stats
Metal Kharkiv and Yarud Mariupol' recent form
| Metal Kharkiv |
LDDWLL |
| Yarud Mariupol' |
WWDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Metal Kharkiv and Yarud Mariupol' season so far
Metal Kharkiv record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Metal Kharkiv | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Yarud Mariupol' | Metal Kharkiv | Persha Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.