Yarud Mariupol'
vs
Inhulets
Garuda Lions Prediction: Yarud Mariupol'
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets
| Probability | Yarud Mariupol' | Draw | Inhulets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.6% | 30.2% | 19.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.6% | 30.2% | 19.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.75.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets attack and defence ratings
Yarud Mariupol'
Inhulets
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.4% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 50.6% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Inhulets | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 25.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 49.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 13.0% |
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets stats
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets recent form
| Yarud Mariupol' |
DDWWDW |
| Inhulets |
LWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets season so far
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inhulets record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Yarud Mariupol' | Inhulets | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Inhulets | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.