Yarud Mariupol'
vs
Inhulets
4 – 1 Full time
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets
| Probability | Yarud Mariupol' | Draw | Inhulets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.7% | 30.4% | 18.8% |
| Market | 49.1% | 27.9% | 23.0% |
| Final | 49.5% | 28.6% | 21.9% |
| Edge | +0.4% | +0.6% | -1.0% |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.73.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.10
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets attack and defence ratings
Yarud Mariupol'
Inhulets
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets: result vs prediction
Yarud Mariupol' 4 – 1 Inhulets
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 49.5% | 2.02 | +0.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 49.5% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Inhulets | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.8% |
| No | 60.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 25.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.6% |
| 0-0 | 13.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets stats
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets recent form
| Yarud Mariupol' |
WDDWWD |
| Inhulets |
LLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Yarud Mariupol' and Inhulets going into this match
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inhulets record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Yarud Mariupol' | Inhulets | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Inhulets | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-28 | Inhulets | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-08-28 | Yarud Mariupol' | Inhulets | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Inhulets odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.2%, draw 27.6%, away 23.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.25 | 3.95 |
| Dafabet | 1.88 | 3.40 | 3.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .