UCSA
vs
Yarud Mariupol'
Garuda Lions Prediction: Yarud Mariupol'
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'
| Probability | UCSA | Draw | Yarud Mariupol' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.2% | 27.4% | 50.3% |
| Market | 30.3% | 28.5% | 41.1% |
| Final | 28.3% | 28.3% | 43.4% |
| Edge | -8.1% | -1.1% | +9.2% |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Yarud Mariupol' below the model: +9.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' match preview
UCSA faces Yarud Mariupol' in a Persha Liga matchup on October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 22% probability of a UCSA victory, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 50% likelihood of a win for Yarud Mariupol'. The expected goals suggest UCSA will score 0.99, while Yarud Mariupol' is projected to net 1.60. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, UCSA has struggled with a record of L-D-L-W-L-L, while Yarud Mariupol' has shown more consistency with D-D-W-W-D-W. Head-to-head results reveal that UCSA has not won against Yarud Mariupol' in their last two encounters, with two draws and no victories for either side. The overall confidence grade for this analysis is C, reflecting model-only probabilities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' attack and defence ratings
UCSA
Yarud Mariupol'
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 43.4% | 2.30 | +9.2% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCSA | 28.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 43.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | |
| 0-2 | 9.6% |
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' stats
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' recent form
| UCSA |
LDLWLL |
| Yarud Mariupol' |
DDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' season so far
UCSA record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Yarud Mariupol' | UCSA | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | UCSA | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.3%, draw 28.5%, away 41.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.99 | 3.12 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.22 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.25 | 2.24 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .