UCSA
vs
Yarud Mariupol'
1 – 2 Full time
| 17′ | P. Castro | ||
| 56′ | O. Synytsya | ||
| 60′ | A. Remenyak | ||
| 62′ | UCSA | ||
| 75′ | V. Sydorenko | ||
| 76′ | P. CastroV. Wojciechowski | ||
| 76′ | D. IrodovskyiG. Goulart |
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol'
| Probability | UCSA | Draw | Yarud Mariupol' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.2% | 27.4% | 50.4% |
| Market | 20.0% | 25.7% | 54.3% |
| Final | 20.6% | 26.1% | 53.3% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.4% | -1.0% |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' attack and defence ratings
UCSA
Yarud Mariupol'
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol': result vs prediction
UCSA 1 – 2 Yarud Mariupol'
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 53.3% | 1.88 | -1.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.6% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCSA | 20.6% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 53.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 49.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.6% |
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' stats
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' recent form
| UCSA |
LDLWLL |
| Yarud Mariupol' |
DDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UCSA and Yarud Mariupol' going into this match
UCSA record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | Yarud Mariupol' | UCSA | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | UCSA | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-14 | UCSA | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 3-0 |
| 2024-08-26 | Yarud Mariupol' | UCSA | Persha Liga | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol' odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.0%, draw 25.7%, away 54.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.66 | 3.48 | 1.65 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.40 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 3.70 | 1.73 |
| Marathonbet | 4.55 | 3.48 | 1.63 |
| Pinnacle | 4.14 | 3.61 | 1.65 |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.30 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .