Oleksandria
vs
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oleksandria
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv
| Probability | Oleksandria | Draw | Lokomotiv Kyiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.3% | 29.6% | 20.2% |
| Market | 62.7% | 23.3% | 14.0% |
| Final | 59.6% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
| Edge | -12.4% | +6.3% | +6.2% |
Why Oleksandria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.81.
Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv match preview
Oleksandria and Lokomotiv Kyiv are set to face off in the Persha Liga on October 11, 2026. Oleksandria holds a 50% probability of winning, while a draw is at 30% and Lokomotiv Kyiv at 20%. The expected goals for Oleksandria stand at 1.43, compared to Lokomotiv Kyiv's 0.81, indicating a potential advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 14%.
In terms of recent form, Oleksandria has recorded three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. Conversely, Lokomotiv Kyiv has experienced a mixed bag with two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 39%, while both teams scoring is at 43%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oleksandria and Lokomotiv Kyiv expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.24
Oleksandria and Lokomotiv Kyiv attack and defence ratings
Oleksandria
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 59.6% | 1.68 | -12.4% | 1.49 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 59.6% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Lokomotiv Kyiv | 15.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.5% |
| No | 56.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oleksandria win | 25.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.0% |
| 1-1 | 13.6% | |
| 0-0 | 11.9% |
Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv stats
Oleksandria and Lokomotiv Kyiv recent form
| Oleksandria |
WDLWDW |
| Lokomotiv Kyiv |
DWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oleksandria and Lokomotiv Kyiv season so far
Oleksandria record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lokomotiv Kyiv record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Oleksandria vs Lokomotiv Kyiv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.7%, draw 23.3%, away 14.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 3.72 | 6.98 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.49 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .