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Persha Liga · Full time ·Matchday 11

Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava

3 – 2 Full time

7′A. Fesenko
13′V. Sad
24′V. Ivanychuk
25′V. Odaryuk
37′M. Girnyi
41′V. Napuda
42′D. Blagodarnyi
61′I. Guk
68′D. GalenkovD. Serbinov
68′D. BlagodarnyiY. Tlumak
77′A. SavitskyiA. Kozachuk
77′V. OdaryukI. Kotsyumaka
77′V. DanylenkoV. Pidlepych
81′M. GirnyiD. Goncharuk
84′O. Lepskyi
86′V. IvanychukB. Drygan
90′B. Kobzar
Probiy Horodenka 18%
Draw 23%
SK Poltava 59%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityProbiy HorodenkaDrawSK Poltava
Model13.1%20.7%66.2%
Market19.8%23.8%56.4%
Final18.1%23.1%58.8%
Edge-1.7%-0.8%+2.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why SK Poltava

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices SK Poltava below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Probiy Horoden ↓ / SK Poltava → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 11% 8% 7% 1 10% 10% 7% 7% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava expected goals

Probiy Horodenka 0.89
SK Poltava 2.20

Total expected goals: 3.10

Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava attack and defence ratings

Probiy Horodenka

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 1.78 +78%

SK Poltava

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava: result vs prediction

Probiy Horodenka 3 – 2 SK Poltava

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Persha Liga

Before and after this match

Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 SK Poltava 58.8% 1.70 +2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.7% 1.67 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.5% 1.87 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.9% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 SK Poltava win 43.6% 2.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Probiy Horodenka18.1%
Draw23.1%
SK Poltava58.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.7%
Under 2.540.3%
Both teams to scoreYes53.5%
No46.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)41.2%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)81.9%
Handicap -1SK Poltava win43.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.7%
Loss33.7%
Correct score (top 3)0-211.0%
1-19.8%
1-29.8%

Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava stats

Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava recent form

newest first
Probiy Horodenka WLLLLL
SK Poltava WLWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava going into this match

league record before kick-off

Probiy Horodenka record

  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

SK Poltava record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 19.1%, draw 23.8%, away 57.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.09 3.75 1.57
Bet365 4.33 3.90 1.62
Betfair 5.00 3.80 1.53
Dafabet 4.60 3.95 1.63
Marathonbet 4.80 3.74 1.55
Pinnacle 4.51 3.65 1.58

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.51 ▼ -0.89
X 3.74 ▼ -0.36
2 1.58 ▲ +0.04

3 snapshots recorded, from .