Probiy Horodenka
vs
SK Poltava
Garuda Lions Prediction: SK Poltava
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava
| Probability | Probiy Horodenka | Draw | SK Poltava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.1% | 20.7% | 66.2% |
| Market | 18.2% | 23.9% | 57.9% |
| Final | 16.9% | 23.1% | 60.0% |
| Edge | -5.1% | -3.2% | +8.3% |
Why SK Poltava
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices SK Poltava below the model: +8.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava match preview
Probiy Horodenka faces SK Poltava in the Persha Liga with a challenging outlook, reflected in the model probabilities which assign an 11% chance of victory to the home side and a 70% likelihood of an away win for SK Poltava. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 12%. Probiy Horodenka's recent form shows a troubling streak of six consecutive losses, while SK Poltava has shown more resilience with three wins in their last six matches.
In terms of offensive output, the expected goals suggest a significant disparity, with Probiy Horodenka projected at 0.82 and SK Poltava at 2.31. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 61%, and there is a 51% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava attack and defence ratings
Probiy Horodenka
SK Poltava
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SK Poltava | 60.0% | 1.67 | +8.3% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | SK Poltava win | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Probiy Horodenka | 16.9% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| SK Poltava | 60.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% |
| No | 46.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | SK Poltava win | 43.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 33.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 11.0% |
| 1-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-2 | 9.8% |
Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava stats
Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava recent form
| Probiy Horodenka |
WLLLLL |
| SK Poltava |
WLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava season so far
Probiy Horodenka record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
SK Poltava record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Probiy Horodenka vs SK Poltava odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.2%, draw 23.9%, away 57.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.09 | 3.75 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.80 | 1.53 |
| Dafabet | 4.60 | 3.95 | 1.63 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .