Oleksandria
vs
Probiy Horodenka
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oleksandria
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Oleksandria vs Probiy Horodenka overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oleksandria vs Probiy Horodenka
| Probability | Oleksandria | Draw | Probiy Horodenka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.1% | 18.5% | 10.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 71.1% | 18.5% | 10.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Oleksandria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.82.
Oleksandria vs Probiy Horodenka match preview
Oleksandria enters the match against Probiy Horodenka with a strong probability of winning at 71%, while the visitors have a 10% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Oleksandria's expected goals stand at 2.38, significantly higher than Probiy Horodenka's 0.82.
In terms of recent form, Oleksandria has recorded mixed results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches. Conversely, Probiy Horodenka has struggled, losing four of their last six games while managing two wins. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is 62%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 52%. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oleksandria and Probiy Horodenka expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Oleksandria and Probiy Horodenka attack and defence ratings
Oleksandria
Probiy Horodenka
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Oleksandria vs Probiy Horodenka markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.6% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Oleksandria win | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 71.1% |
| Draw | 18.5% | |
| Probiy Horodenka | 10.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% |
| No | 48.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oleksandria win | 49.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 28.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 3-0 | 9.1% |
Oleksandria vs Probiy Horodenka stats
Oleksandria and Probiy Horodenka recent form
| Oleksandria |
LWDLWD |
| Probiy Horodenka |
WWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oleksandria and Probiy Horodenka season so far
Oleksandria record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Probiy Horodenka record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.