UCSA
vs
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lokomotiv Kyiv
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lokomotiv Kyiv is the favourite, not a value bet.
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv
| Probability | UCSA | Draw | Lokomotiv Kyiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.7% | 28.5% | 44.8% |
| Market | 34.1% | 28.5% | 37.4% |
| Final | 32.3% | 28.5% | 39.3% |
| Edge | -1.9% | +0.0% | +1.8% |
Why Lokomotiv Kyiv
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.2% per unit staked (our 39.3% × 2.55 − 1).
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv match preview
UCSA faces Lokomotiv Kyiv in a match where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter, with Lokomotiv Kyiv holding a 39% chance of victory compared to UCSA's 32% and a 28% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals indicate a slight advantage for Lokomotiv Kyiv at 1.47, while UCSA is projected to score 1.09. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1 in favor of Lokomotiv Kyiv.
In terms of recent form, UCSA has struggled with a record of D-L-L-D-L-W, while Lokomotiv Kyiv has shown strong performance with three consecutive wins, contributing to their current momentum. The model suggests a 52% chance that both teams will score, and there is a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UCSA and Lokomotiv Kyiv expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
UCSA and Lokomotiv Kyiv attack and defence ratings
UCSA
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Chernihiv vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk — team news & stats
- Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol'
- Oleksandria v Probiy Horodenka — match page
- Prykarpattia vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka
- Polissya II vs SK Poltava — team news & stats
- Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka II — team news & stats
- Nyva Ternopil v Kulykiv — match page
Before and after this match
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 39.3% | 2.55 | +1.8% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCSA | 32.3% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Lokomotiv Kyiv | 39.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Kyiv win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 55.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 10.2% | |
| 1-2 | 9.1% |
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv stats
UCSA and Lokomotiv Kyiv recent form
| UCSA |
DLLDLW |
| Lokomotiv Kyiv |
DWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UCSA and Lokomotiv Kyiv season so far
UCSA record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lokomotiv Kyiv record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-03 | UCSA | Lokomotiv Kyiv | Druha Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-07 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | UCSA | Druha Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
UCSA vs Lokomotiv Kyiv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 28.5%, away 37.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.10 | 2.43 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.05 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.25 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.18 | 2.35 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .