Chernihiv
vs
Yarud Mariupol'
Garuda Lions Prediction: Yarud Mariupol'
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.86.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol'
| Probability | Chernihiv | Draw | Yarud Mariupol' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.0% | 26.4% | 55.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 18.0% | 26.4% | 55.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' match preview
Chernihiv faces Yarud Mariupol' in the Persha Liga with the home side holding an 18% chance of victory compared to Yarud Mariupol's 56%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a 12% probability. Chernihiv's recent form shows a mixed bag of results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Yarud Mariupol' has been more consistent, winning four of their last six games.
In terms of expected goals, Chernihiv is projected to score 0.86, while Yarud Mariupol' is expected to net 1.68. The probabilities indicate a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Yarud Mariupol' has secured two wins against Chernihiv.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chernihiv and Yarud Mariupol' expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Chernihiv and Yarud Mariupol' attack and defence ratings
Chernihiv
Yarud Mariupol'
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chernihiv | 18.0% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 55.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 31.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 44.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 0-1 | 12.1% | |
| 0-2 | 11.1% |
Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' stats
Chernihiv and Yarud Mariupol' recent form
| Chernihiv |
LWLLLW |
| Yarud Mariupol' |
WWWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chernihiv and Yarud Mariupol' season so far
Chernihiv record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chernihiv vs Yarud Mariupol' head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Chernihiv | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 1-4 |
| 2025-08-31 | Yarud Mariupol' | Chernihiv | Persha Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.