Oleksandria
vs
SK Poltava
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oleksandria
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Oleksandria is the favourite, not a value bet.
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oleksandria vs SK Poltava
| Probability | Oleksandria | Draw | SK Poltava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.4% | 31.2% | 30.4% |
| Market | 37.4% | 26.9% | 35.7% |
| Final | 37.7% | 28.0% | 34.4% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +1.1% | -1.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (our 37.7% × 2.48 − 1).
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava match preview
In the upcoming match between Oleksandria and SK Poltava, Oleksandria holds a slight edge in the 1X2 probabilities at 38%, compared to SK Poltava's 30% and a 31% chance for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at an 11% probability. Expected goals suggest Oleksandria will score 1.21, while SK Poltava is projected to net 1.05.
Recent form shows Oleksandria with a record of D-W-D-L-W-D, while SK Poltava has L-W-W-L-W-L. In their last two encounters, Oleksandria has secured 1 win and 1 draw against SK Poltava, who has yet to win in this matchup. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 39%, and both teams to score is at 47%. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oleksandria and SK Poltava expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
Oleksandria and SK Poltava attack and defence ratings
Oleksandria
SK Poltava
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 37.7% | 2.66 | +0.2% | 2.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 37.7% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| SK Poltava | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oleksandria win | 17.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 61.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.7% | |
| 1-0 | 11.3% |
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava stats
Oleksandria and SK Poltava recent form
| Oleksandria |
DWDLWD |
| SK Poltava |
LWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oleksandria and SK Poltava season so far
Oleksandria record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SK Poltava record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Oleksandria | SK Poltava | Friendlies Clubs | 5-2 |
| 2026-04-03 | SK Poltava | Oleksandria | Ukraine Premier League | 3-3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Oleksandria | SK Poltava | Ukraine Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Oleksandria vs SK Poltava odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.4%, draw 26.9%, away 35.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 2.48 | 3.45 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .