Persha Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Oleksandria
vs
Chernihiv
1 – 0 Full time
Oleksandria
49%
Draw
27%
Chernihiv
24%
Oleksandria vs Chernihiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oleksandria vs Chernihiv
| Probability | Oleksandria | Draw | Chernihiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.3% | 26.5% | 24.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 49.3% | 26.5% | 24.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Oleksandria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Oleksandria and Chernihiv expected goals
Oleksandria
1.66
Chernihiv
1.13
Total expected goals: 2.78
Oleksandria and Chernihiv attack and defence ratings
Oleksandria
Attack
1.31 +31%
Defence
1.17 +17%
Chernihiv
Attack
0.90 -10%
Defence
1.01 +1%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Oleksandria vs Chernihiv: result vs prediction
Oleksandria 1 – 0 Chernihiv
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Oleksandria vs Chernihiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 49.3% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Chernihiv | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.8% |
| No | 44.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oleksandria win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 51.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 9.1% |
Oleksandria vs Chernihiv stats
Oleksandria and Chernihiv recent form
| Oleksandria |
WWDDLD |
| Chernihiv |
DDDDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oleksandria and Chernihiv going into this match
Oleksandria record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Chernihiv record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.