Persha Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Lokomotiv Kyiv
vs
Yarud Mariupol'
1 – 3 Full time
Lokomotiv Kyiv
33%
Draw
34%
Yarud Mariupol'
34%
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol' overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol'
| Probability | Lokomotiv Kyiv | Draw | Yarud Mariupol' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.6% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.6% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
60%
3+ goals
32%
No goals
15%
Lokomotiv Kyiv and Yarud Mariupol' expected goals
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.98
Yarud Mariupol'
1.00
Total expected goals: 1.99
Lokomotiv Kyiv and Yarud Mariupol' attack and defence ratings
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Attack
0.82 -18%
Defence
0.92 -8%
Yarud Mariupol'
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol': result vs prediction
Lokomotiv Kyiv 1 – 3 Yarud Mariupol'
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol' markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 33.7% | 2.97 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 32.6% |
| Draw | 33.7% | |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 33.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.0% |
| No | 59.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 13.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 66.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-1 | 14.9% | |
| 0-1 | 12.4% |
Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol' stats
Lokomotiv Kyiv and Yarud Mariupol' recent form
| Lokomotiv Kyiv |
DLDD |
| Yarud Mariupol' |
WLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.
Lokomotiv Kyiv and Yarud Mariupol' going into this match
Lokomotiv Kyiv record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.