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United Arab Emirates Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Al Ain vs Al Nasr

2 – 1 Full time

Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium, Al AinReferee: H. Sorto

Al Ain 69%
Draw 18%
Al Nasr 12%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Al Ain vs Al Nasr overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ain vs Al Nasr

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAl AinDrawAl Nasr
Model72.5%17.6%9.9%
Market68.4%18.4%13.2%
Final69.4%18.2%12.4%
Edge+4.1%-0.8%-3.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Al Ain

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.51 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Al Ain below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Al Ain ↓ / Al Nasr → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 8% 2 11% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 11% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

Al Ain and Al Nasr expected goals

Al Ain 2.51
Al Nasr 0.83

Total expected goals: 3.34

Al Ain and Al Nasr attack and defence ratings

Al Ain

Attack 1.81 +81%
Defence 0.56 -44%

Al Nasr

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Al Ain vs Al Nasr: result vs prediction

Al Ain 2 – 1 Al Nasr

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

United Arab Emirates Pro League

Before and after this match

Al Ain vs Al Nasr markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Al Ain 69.4% 1.44 +4.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.5% 1.55 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.9% 1.89 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.6% 1.14 — —
Handicap -1 Al Ain win 51.9% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Al Ain69.4%
Draw18.2%
Al Nasr12.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%
Both teams to scoreYes52.9%
No47.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.6%
12 (either side)81.8%
X2 (draw or away)30.6%
Handicap -1Al Ain win51.9%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss26.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.1%
2-19.3%
3-09.2%

Al Ain vs Al Nasr stats

Al Ain and Al Nasr recent form

newest first
Al Ain WWWWWW
Al Nasr WDDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Al Ain vs Al Nasr head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Al Ain wins 2Draws 4Al Nasr wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-14Al AinAl NasrUnited Arab Emirates Pro League1-1
2025-12-28Al NasrAl AinUnited Arab Emirates Pro League2-2
2025-12-13Al AinAl NasrLeague Cup0-2
2025-12-05Al NasrAl AinLeague Cup0-3
2025-05-23Al NasrAl AinPro League0-2
2025-01-21Al AinAl NasrPro League4-1
2024-04-07Al AinAl NasrPro League1-3
2023-12-12Al AinAl NasrLeague Cup1-2
2023-10-19Al NasrAl AinLeague Cup0-2
2023-10-08Al NasrAl AinPro League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Al Ain vs Al Nasr odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.4%, draw 18.4%, away 13.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.32 4.95 7.15
Betano 1.37 4.90 6.80
Betfair 1.29 5.00 7.50
Marathonbet 1.31 4.95 6.90
Pinnacle 1.34 5.32 7.15
Superbet 1.35 5.10 6.70
William Hill 1.33 4.80 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.33 ▼ -0.05
X 4.95 ▲ +0.33
2 6.90 ▲ +0.78

12 snapshots recorded, from .