Holywell
vs
Penybont
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penybont
0 – 3 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.16 vs 0.88.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Holywell vs Penybont overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Holywell vs Penybont
| Probability | Holywell | Draw | Penybont |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.6% | 12.3% | 81.1% |
| Market | 10.2% | 16.9% | 72.9% |
| Final | 9.3% | 15.7% | 75.0% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -1.1% | +2.0% |
Why Penybont
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.16 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penybont below our published probability: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (our 75.0% × 1.28 − 1).
Holywell vs Penybont match preview
Holywell faces a challenging match against Penybont in the Wales Premier League, with the model indicating a low probability of success for the home side at just 7%. Penybont, on the other hand, holds an impressive 81% chance of winning, reflecting their strong recent form, which includes six consecutive victories. The expected goals suggest a significant disparity, with Holywell projected to score 0.88 and Penybont 3.16.
The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 0-3 in favor of Penybont, supported by a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 77%. Additionally, there is a 57% chance that both teams will score. Holywell's recent form shows a struggle, with five losses in their last six matches, while Penybont's form is robust, having won four of their last five.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Holywell and Penybont expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.04
Holywell and Penybont attack and defence ratings
Holywell
Penybont
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry — team news & stats
- Cambrian & Clydach vs Airbus UK — team news & stats
- Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET
- Trefelin vs Flint Town United — team news & stats
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno
- Barry Town v Haverfordwest County AFC — match page
Before and after this match
Holywell vs Penybont markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 75.0% | 1.33 | +2.0% | 1.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 90.7% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holywell | 9.3% |
| Draw | 15.7% | |
| Penybont | 75.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 25.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 90.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 63.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 18.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-3 | 9.2% |
| 0-2 | 8.8% | |
| 1-3 | 8.2% |
Holywell vs Penybont stats
Holywell and Penybont recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Holywell and Penybont season so far
Holywell record
- They have won 0 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Penybont record
- They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Holywell vs Penybont head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-05 | Penybont | Holywell | Welsh Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Holywell vs Penybont odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 10.2%, draw 16.9%, away 72.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 9.60 | 5.10 | 1.24 |
| Bet365 | 8.00 | 5.75 | 1.25 |
| Betano | 8.25 | 5.30 | 1.27 |
| Betfair | 9.50 | 5.50 | 1.20 |
| Dafabet | 8.80 | 5.60 | 1.28 |
| Marathonbet | 9.10 | 5.10 | 1.23 |
| Pinnacle | 8.41 | 5.73 | 1.28 |
| William Hill | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .