The New Saints
vs
Ammanford AFC
Garuda Lions Prediction: The New Saints
4 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.50 vs 0.49.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — The New Saints is the favourite, not a value bet.
The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC
| Probability | The New Saints | Draw | Ammanford AFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 95.5% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Market | 93.3% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Final | 93.8% | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| Edge | +0.6% | -0.4% | -0.2% |
Why The New Saints
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.50 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.03, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (our 93.8% × 1.03 − 1).
The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC match preview
The New Saints are heavily favored in their upcoming match against Ammanford AFC, with a 95% probability of winning according to our model. They have shown impressive recent form, winning their last six matches. The expected goals for The New Saints stand at 4.50, while Ammanford AFC is projected to score only 0.49. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 4-0, occurring with a 12% probability.
In terms of overall match dynamics, there is an 87% chance that the game will see over 2.5 goals, while both teams scoring is less likely at 39%. Ammanford AFC's recent form includes two wins, a loss, and a draw, indicating some inconsistency as they face a dominant opponent.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
The New Saints and Ammanford AFC expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.99
The New Saints and Ammanford AFC attack and defence ratings
The New Saints
Ammanford AFC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 93.8% | 1.07 | +0.6% | 1.03 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 98.5% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 87.6% | 1.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 93.8% |
| Draw | 4.7% | |
| Ammanford AFC | 1.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.7% |
| No | 61.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 98.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 95.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 6.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 87.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 7.9% | |
| Loss | 4.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 4-0 | 11.7% |
| 5-0 | 10.5% | |
| 3-0 | 10.4% |
The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC stats
The New Saints and Ammanford AFC recent form
| The New Saints |
WWWWWW |
| Ammanford AFC |
WWLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
The New Saints and Ammanford AFC season so far
The New Saints record
- They have won 12 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Ammanford AFC record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
The New Saints vs Ammanford AFC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 93.3%, draw 5.0%, away 1.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.03 | 19.00 | 50.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.01 | 21.00 | 81.00 |
| Betano | 1.01 | 12.00 | 60.00 |
| Betfair | 1.01 | 36.00 | 61.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.03 | 15.00 | 35.00 |
| William Hill | 1.03 | 19.00 | 51.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .