The New Saints
vs
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: The New Saints
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
| Probability | The New Saints | Draw | GAP Connah S Quay FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.2% | 20.2% | 12.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 67.2% | 20.2% | 12.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why The New Saints
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.89.
The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC match preview
The New Saints enter this match with a strong probability of winning at 67%, while GAP Connah S Quay FC has a 13% chance of securing victory. The expected goals for The New Saints stand at 2.24 compared to 0.89 for GAP Connah S Quay FC, suggesting a significant offensive advantage for the home side. Recent form also favors The New Saints, who have won their last six matches, while GAP Connah S Quay FC has matched this with their own six consecutive victories.
In terms of scoring, our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0, occurring at an 11% likelihood. There is a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and a 53% chance that both teams will find the net. The head-to-head record shows The New Saints with three wins and GAP Connah S Quay FC with one win in their last four encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
The New Saints and GAP Connah S Quay FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
The New Saints and GAP Connah S Quay FC attack and defence ratings
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 67.2% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 12.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.4% |
| No | 46.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 44.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 32.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.6% |
The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC stats
The New Saints and GAP Connah S Quay FC recent form
| The New Saints |
WWWWWW |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
The New Saints and GAP Connah S Quay FC season so far
The New Saints record
- They have won 12 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
GAP Connah S Quay FC record
- They have won 10 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
The New Saints vs GAP Connah S Quay FC head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | The New Saints | GAP Connah S Quay FC | Wales Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-03 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | The New Saints | Wales Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-31 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | The New Saints | Wales Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-22 | The New Saints | GAP Connah S Quay FC | Wales Premier League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.