Barry Town
vs
Trefelin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barry Town
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.11.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Barry Town vs Trefelin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barry Town vs Trefelin
| Probability | Barry Town | Draw | Trefelin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.6% | 19.5% | 14.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 65.6% | 19.5% | 14.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Barry Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.11.
Barry Town vs Trefelin match preview
Barry Town enters the match against Trefelin with a strong probability of winning at 68%, while Trefelin holds a 13% chance of securing victory. The expected goals indicate a significant advantage for Barry Town at 2.49 compared to Trefelin's 1.04. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Barry Town has recorded a mixed set of results, with their latest five matches showing two wins, two losses, and one draw. Trefelin, on the other hand, has struggled, managing only one win in their last six matches, alongside four losses and one draw. The model suggests a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barry Town and Trefelin expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.54
Barry Town and Trefelin attack and defence ratings
Barry Town
Trefelin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barry Town vs Trefelin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barry Town | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.1% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Barry Town win | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barry Town | 65.6% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| Trefelin | 14.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% |
| No | 38.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barry Town win | 44.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 34.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Barry Town vs Trefelin stats
Barry Town and Trefelin recent form
| Barry Town |
LLWLLD |
| Trefelin |
LWLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barry Town and Trefelin season so far
Barry Town record
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trefelin record
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.9 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.