Trefelin
vs
Colwyn Bay
Garuda Lions Prediction: Colwyn Bay
0 – 2 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.65.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Colwyn Bay is the favourite, not a value bet.
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay
| Probability | Trefelin | Draw | Colwyn Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8.4% | 18.7% | 72.9% |
| Market | 13.7% | 21.0% | 65.4% |
| Final | 12.3% | 20.4% | 67.2% |
| Edge | -1.3% | -0.6% | +1.9% |
Why Colwyn Bay
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (our 67.2% × 1.44 − 1).
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay match preview
Trefelin faces Colwyn Bay in the Wales Premier League, with the home side struggling in recent form, recording two losses followed by a draw. Their expected goals stand at 0.65, indicating challenges in finding the net. In contrast, Colwyn Bay has shown stronger performance, with three wins in their last five matches and an expected goals figure of 2.24, suggesting a potent attacking threat.
The probabilities indicate a significant advantage for Colwyn Bay, with a 69% chance of victory compared to Trefelin's 11%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring with a 14% probability. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, while both teams scoring has a 43% likelihood.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Trefelin and Colwyn Bay expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Trefelin and Colwyn Bay attack and defence ratings
Trefelin
Colwyn Bay
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Llandudno vs The New Saints
- Ammanford AFC v Briton Ferry — match page
- Penybont vs Caernarfon Town — team news & stats
- Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET
- Cambrian & Clydach v Barry Town — match page
- Holywell vs Airbus UK — team news & stats
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colwyn Bay | 67.2% | 1.49 | +1.9% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Colwyn Bay win | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trefelin | 12.3% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| Colwyn Bay | 67.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.5% |
| No | 56.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colwyn Bay win | 49.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 27.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | |
| 0-3 | 10.4% |
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay stats
Trefelin and Colwyn Bay recent form
| Trefelin |
LLWLLD |
| Colwyn Bay |
WDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Trefelin and Colwyn Bay season so far
Trefelin record
- They have won 1 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 15 matches.
Colwyn Bay record
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Colwyn Bay | Trefelin | Wales Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.7%, draw 21.0%, away 65.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.25 | 4.20 | 1.37 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 3.60 | 1.33 |
| Betano | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.42 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.42 |
| Marathonbet | 6.90 | 4.20 | 1.36 |
| Pinnacle | 5.88 | 4.30 | 1.44 |
| SBO | 6.57 | 4.14 | 1.34 |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.33 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .