Penybont
vs
Caernarfon Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penybont
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.55.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penybont vs Caernarfon Town
| Probability | Penybont | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.7% | 22.7% | 27.6% |
| Market | 38.1% | 27.7% | 34.2% |
| Final | 41.0% | 26.5% | 32.5% |
| Edge | +2.9% | -1.3% | -1.6% |
Why Penybont
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.55.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penybont below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.4% per unit staked (our 41.0% × 2.43 − 1).
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town match preview
Penybont faces Caernarfon Town in a Wales Premier League match on November 6, 2026. Penybont holds a 39% probability of winning, while Caernarfon Town has a 35% chance, with a 26% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals are 2.10 for Penybont and 1.55 for Caernarfon Town, suggesting a competitive matchup. Recent form shows Penybont on a strong run with five wins in their last six matches, while Caernarfon Town has mixed results, including two wins and a draw in their last five.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Penybont, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams scoring is projected at 70%. In their last ten encounters, Penybont has secured five victories, while Caernarfon Town has won four times, indicating a closely contested rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penybont and Caernarfon Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.65
Penybont and Caernarfon Town attack and defence ratings
Penybont
Caernarfon Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 41.0% | 2.44 | +2.9% | 2.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 41.0% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Caernarfon Town | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.9% |
| No | 30.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 29.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town stats
Penybont and Caernarfon Town recent form
| Penybont |
WWLWWW |
| Caernarfon Town |
LWWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penybont and Caernarfon Town season so far
Penybont record
- They have won 10 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Caernarfon Town record
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Caernarfon Town | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Caernarfon Town | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Penybont | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Penybont | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Caernarfon Town | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-13 | Penybont | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Caernarfon Town | Penybont | Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2024-11-02 | Caernarfon Town | Penybont | Premier League | 1-5 |
| 2024-09-07 | Penybont | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-18 | Caernarfon Town | Penybont | Premier League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penybont vs Caernarfon Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 27.7%, away 34.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.20 | 2.64 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.20 | 2.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.38 | 3.35 | 2.84 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 3.10 | 2.51 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .