Holywell
vs
Airbus UK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Airbus UK
1 – 3 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.93 vs 1.10.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Holywell vs Airbus UK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Holywell vs Airbus UK
| Probability | Holywell | Draw | Airbus UK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5.5% | 9.1% | 85.4% |
| Market | 15.3% | 19.3% | 65.5% |
| Final | 12.8% | 16.7% | 70.4% |
| Edge | -2.4% | -2.5% | +5.0% |
Why Airbus UK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.93 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Airbus UK below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.4% per unit staked (our 70.4% × 1.44 − 1).
Holywell vs Airbus UK match preview
Holywell faces Airbus UK in a Wales Premier League clash, with the probabilities indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. Holywell has a 13% chance of winning, while Airbus UK stands at 70%. The most likely scoreline, according to our model, is 1-3, with an expected goals tally of 1.10 for Holywell and a significant 3.93 for Airbus UK.
Recent form highlights a stark contrast between the two teams. Holywell has struggled, recording five losses and one draw in their last six matches. In contrast, Airbus UK has shown strong performance with four wins in their last five outings. Additionally, there is an 88% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance that both teams will score in this match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Holywell and Airbus UK expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.03
Holywell and Airbus UK attack and defence ratings
Holywell
Airbus UK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Holywell vs Airbus UK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Airbus UK | 70.4% | 1.42 | +5.0% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.8% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Airbus UK win | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holywell | 12.8% |
| Draw | 16.7% | |
| Airbus UK | 70.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.7% |
| No | 34.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Airbus UK win | 71.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.7% | |
| Loss | 14.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 7.3% |
| 1-4 | 7.2% | |
| 0-3 | 6.6% |
Holywell vs Airbus UK stats
Holywell and Airbus UK recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Holywell and Airbus UK season so far
Holywell record
- They have won 0 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Airbus UK record
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Holywell vs Airbus UK head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Airbus UK | Holywell | Wales Premier League | 6-2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Holywell | Airbus UK | FAW Championship | 0-3 |
| 2025-10-03 | Airbus UK | Holywell | FAW Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-25 | Holywell | Airbus UK | FAW Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-25 | Airbus UK | Holywell | FAW Championship | 8-3 |
| 2023-12-16 | Holywell | Airbus UK | FAW Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-04 | Airbus UK | Holywell | FAW Championship | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-18 | Holywell | Airbus UK | FAW Championship | 3-2 |
| 2021-10-09 | Airbus UK | Holywell | FAW Championship | 6-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Holywell vs Airbus UK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.3%, draw 19.3%, away 65.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.32 | 4.60 | 1.37 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 5.25 | 3.90 | 1.33 |
| Betano | 5.90 | 4.80 | 1.38 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 6.00 | 4.70 | 1.44 |
| Marathonbet | 6.30 | 4.80 | 1.33 |
| Pinnacle | 5.65 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| SBO | 5.42 | 4.24 | 1.37 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .