Haverfordwest County AFC
vs
Cardiff MET
Garuda Lions Prediction: Haverfordwest County AFC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Haverfordwest County AFC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET
| Probability | Haverfordwest County AFC | Draw | Cardiff MET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.9% | 29.7% | 29.5% |
| Market | 37.7% | 26.5% | 35.9% |
| Final | 38.5% | 27.3% | 34.3% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.8% | -1.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (our 38.5% × 2.50 − 1).
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET match preview
Haverfordwest County AFC faces Cardiff MET in the Wales Premier League, with Haverfordwest holding a 39% probability of winning, while Cardiff MET stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Haverfordwest, with an expected goals tally of 1.34 for Haverfordwest and 1.10 for Cardiff MET. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Haverfordwest County AFC recording two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Cardiff MET has two wins, two draws, and two losses.
In their last ten encounters, Haverfordwest County AFC has secured four wins, with five matches ending in draws and Cardiff MET winning just once. The model suggests a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% likelihood of both teams scoring, indicating a potentially competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET attack and defence ratings
Haverfordwest County AFC
Cardiff MET
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 38.5% | 2.60 | +0.8% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 38.5% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Cardiff MET | 34.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% |
| No | 49.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Haverfordwest County AFC win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 59.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET stats
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET recent form
| Haverfordwest County AFC |
WWLLLL |
| Cardiff MET |
LDLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Haverfordwest County AFC and Cardiff MET season so far
Haverfordwest County AFC record
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 15 matches.
Cardiff MET record
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Cardiff MET | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Cardiff MET | Wales Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Cardiff MET | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-12-30 | Cardiff MET | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Cardiff MET | Wales Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-11 | Cardiff MET | Haverfordwest County AFC | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-21 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Cardiff MET | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-27 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Cardiff MET | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-26 | Cardiff MET | Haverfordwest County AFC | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2023-12-09 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Cardiff MET | Welsh Cup | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.7%, draw 26.5%, away 35.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.00 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.45 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.36 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.62 | 2.46 |
| SBO | 2.36 | 3.06 | 2.49 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .