Cardiff MET
vs
Penybont
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penybont
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.26.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Cardiff MET vs Penybont overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cardiff MET vs Penybont
| Probability | Cardiff MET | Draw | Penybont |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.2% | 27.0% | 43.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 29.2% | 27.0% | 43.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Penybont
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Cardiff MET vs Penybont match preview
Cardiff MET faces Penybont in an upcoming Wales Premier League match, with kickoff set for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Cardiff MET has a 29% chance of winning, while Penybont is favored at 44%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, with a 9% probability. Both teams have shown attacking potential, with expected goals of 1.26 for Cardiff MET and 1.58 for Penybont.
Recent form indicates contrasting performances; Cardiff MET has recorded two draws, a win, and two losses in their last six matches, while Penybont has been in strong form with five consecutive wins followed by a loss. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 54%, and both teams are expected to score in 58% of scenarios. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cardiff MET and Penybont expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Cardiff MET and Penybont attack and defence ratings
Cardiff MET
Penybont
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cardiff MET vs Penybont markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 43.8% | 2.28 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff MET | 29.2% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Penybont | 43.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% |
| No | 42.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 22.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 0-1 | 8.1% |
Cardiff MET vs Penybont stats
Cardiff MET and Penybont recent form
| Cardiff MET |
DLWWDL |
| Penybont |
WLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cardiff MET and Penybont season so far
Cardiff MET record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penybont record
- They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cardiff MET vs Penybont head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | Penybont | Cardiff MET | Wales Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Cardiff MET | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.