Penybont
vs
Barry Town
3 – 1 Full time
Penybont vs Barry Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penybont vs Barry Town
| Probability | Penybont | Draw | Barry Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.9% | 23.4% | 22.7% |
| Market | 51.2% | 25.4% | 23.4% |
| Final | 51.9% | 24.9% | 23.2% |
| Edge | +2.8% | -2.1% | -0.7% |
Why Penybont
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penybont below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penybont and Barry Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.29
Penybont and Barry Town attack and defence ratings
Penybont
Barry Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penybont vs Barry Town: result vs prediction
Penybont 3 – 1 Barry Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penybont vs Barry Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 51.9% | 1.93 | +2.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 51.9% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Barry Town | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 46.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Penybont vs Barry Town stats
Penybont and Barry Town recent form
| Penybont |
LWWWWW |
| Barry Town |
WLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penybont and Barry Town going into this match
Penybont record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barry Town record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penybont vs Barry Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Penybont | Barry Town | Wales Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2026-03-03 | Barry Town | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Penybont | Barry Town | Wales Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-22 | Barry Town | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2024-12-26 | Barry Town | Penybont | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-22 | Barry Town | Penybont | League Cup | 3-2 |
| 2024-10-04 | Penybont | Barry Town | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2024-03-29 | Barry Town | Penybont | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-10 | Penybont | Barry Town | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-28 | Barry Town | Penybont | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penybont vs Barry Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.2%, draw 25.4%, away 23.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.52 | 3.84 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.95 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.52 | 3.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.69 | 4.04 |
| SBO | 1.76 | 3.29 | 3.63 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .