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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 13

Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

1 – 2 Full time

Old RoadReferee: J. Walker

Briton Ferry 16%
Draw 23%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 62%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBriton FerryDrawGAP Connah S Quay FC
Model12.4%23.4%64.2%
Market16.6%22.6%60.8%
Final15.6%22.8%61.7%
Edge-4.2%+0.8%+3.4%

Confidence: Low

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.71.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices GAP Connah S Quay FC below the model: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Briton Ferry ↓ / GAP Connah S Q → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 13% 13% 8% 1 11% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 8%

Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC expected goals

Briton Ferry 0.71
GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.88

Total expected goals: 2.60

Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC attack and defence ratings

Briton Ferry

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 1.03 +3%

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 0.59 -41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: result vs prediction

Briton Ferry 1 – 2 GAP Connah S Quay FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 61.7% 1.62 +3.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.9% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score No 55.7% 1.79 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 84.4% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 GAP Connah S Quay FC win 39.4% 2.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Briton Ferry15.6%
Draw22.8%
GAP Connah S Quay FC61.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%
Both teams to scoreYes44.3%
No55.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)38.3%
12 (either side)77.2%
X2 (draw or away)84.4%
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win39.4%
Push (exactly one goal)24.8%
Loss35.8%
Correct score (top 3)0-213.2%
0-113.0%
1-111.0%

Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC stats

Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC recent form

newest first
Briton Ferry WDDLLL
GAP Connah S Quay FC WWWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Briton Ferry and GAP Connah S Quay FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Briton Ferry record

  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

GAP Connah S Quay FC record

  • They have won 9 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

2Briton Ferry wins 0Draws 4GAP Connah S Quay FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-21GAP Connah S Quay FCBriton FerryWales Premier League4-2
2025-10-11Briton FerryGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League0-3
2025-03-29Briton FerryGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League1-0
2025-02-08GAP Connah S Quay FCBriton FerryPremier League0-1
2024-10-27GAP Connah S Quay FCBriton FerryPremier League2-1
2024-08-31Briton FerryGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League1-5

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Briton Ferry vs GAP Connah S Quay FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 16.6%, draw 22.6%, away 60.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.90 4.05 1.45
Bet365 5.00 3.90 1.50
BetVictor 4.80 3.50 1.40
Betano 5.20 4.00 1.52
Betfair 5.50 4.00 1.47
Dafabet 5.60 4.20 1.52
Marathonbet 5.65 4.05 1.44
Pinnacle 5.37 4.28 1.52
SBO 5.32 3.77 1.44
William Hill 5.50 3.90 1.53

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.44 ▲ +0.50
X 4.00 ▲ +0.15
2 1.48 ▼ -0.10

10 snapshots recorded, from .