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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 12

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont

1 – 0 Full time

39′T. Mehew
56′D. Barrow
59′D. Jefferies
61′J. JonesR. Watson
64′L. Shephard
72′T. WalkerC. Venables
72′D. BarrowE. Cann
75′J. HodkinH. Mehasseb
75′F. DeaneA. Sharif
75′M. WoodcockF. Redshaw
82′M. Manga
83′E. Vaughan
88′H. Mehasseb
90′I. MurrayC. Partridge
90′M. MangaI. Phillips

Essity Stadium, FlintReferee: I. A. Griffith

GAP Connah S Quay FC 47%
Draw 27%
Penybont 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont overview

Garuda Lions analysis: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGAP Connah S Quay FCDrawPenybont
Model44.8%27.9%27.3%
Market47.9%27.1%25.0%
Final47.1%27.3%25.6%
Edge-3.1%+0.8%+2.3%

Confidence: Low

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.14.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

GAP Connah S Q ↓ / Penybont → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 7% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont expected goals

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.52
Penybont 1.14

Total expected goals: 2.67

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont attack and defence ratings

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Penybont

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont: result vs prediction

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1 – 0 Penybont

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 47.1% 2.12 -3.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.2% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.5% 1.83 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.4% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.2% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2GAP Connah S Quay FC47.1%
Draw27.3%
Penybont25.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.8%
Under 2.550.2%
Both teams to scoreYes54.5%
No45.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.4%
12 (either side)72.7%
X2 (draw or away)52.9%
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win23.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss55.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.3%
1-09.4%
2-19.2%

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont stats

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont recent form

newest first
GAP Connah S Quay FC WWWLDW
Penybont WWWWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont going into this match

league record before kick-off

GAP Connah S Quay FC record

  • They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Penybont record

  • They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5GAP Connah S Quay FC wins 3Draws 2Penybont wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21GAP Connah S Quay FCPenybontWales Premier League2-1
2026-02-14PenybontGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League0-0
2025-11-08GAP Connah S Quay FCPenybontWales Premier League4-0
2025-08-30PenybontGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League0-1
2025-01-04PenybontGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League1-0
2024-09-15GAP Connah S Quay FCPenybontPremier League0-1
2024-01-13PenybontGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-1
2023-09-30GAP Connah S Quay FCPenybontPremier League4-2
2023-04-15GAP Connah S Quay FCPenybontPremier League0-0
2023-03-11PenybontGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.9%, draw 27.1%, away 25.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.91 3.80 3.82
Bet365 1.83 3.50 3.60
BetVictor 1.75 3.00 3.40
Betano 1.87 3.40 3.70
Betfair 1.90 3.30 3.60
Marathonbet 1.84 3.34 3.62
Pinnacle 1.89 3.42 3.89
SBO 1.90 3.06 3.37
William Hill 1.91 3.20 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.89 ▼ -0.20
X 3.34 ▲ +0.14
2 3.62 ▲ +0.28

9 snapshots recorded, from .