Ammanford AFC
vs
Holywell
2 – 1 Full time
| 2′ | F. Yonsian | ||
| 20′ | F. Murtas | ||
| 38′ | J. Evans | ||
| 47′ | M. Fisher | ||
| 53′ | J. Evans | ||
| 69′ | C. ThomasC. L. Davies | ||
| 69′ | M. FisherC. Shirt | ||
| 76′ | M. Delaney | ||
| 82′ | J. EvansA. John | ||
| 90′ | Holywell | ||
| 90′ | C. L. Davies | ||
| 90′ | T. Bibby | ||
| 90′ | F. MurtasL. Williams | ||
| 90′ | T. BibbyT. Dogan |
Ammanford AFC vs Holywell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ammanford AFC vs Holywell
| Probability | Ammanford AFC | Draw | Holywell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.5% | 24.3% | 44.2% |
| Market | 32.7% | 25.5% | 41.8% |
| Final | 32.4% | 25.2% | 42.4% |
| Edge | -1.1% | -1.3% | +2.4% |
Why Holywell
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.55.
- The market prices Holywell below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ammanford AFC and Holywell expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Ammanford AFC and Holywell attack and defence ratings
Ammanford AFC
Holywell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ammanford AFC vs Holywell: result vs prediction
Ammanford AFC 2 – 1 Holywell
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ammanford AFC vs Holywell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holywell | 42.4% | 2.36 | +2.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ammanford AFC | 32.4% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Holywell | 42.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.4% |
| No | 32.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Holywell win | 24.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 55.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Ammanford AFC vs Holywell stats
Ammanford AFC and Holywell recent form
| Ammanford AFC |
LLDLLL |
| Holywell |
DLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ammanford AFC and Holywell going into this match
Ammanford AFC record
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Holywell record
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Ammanford AFC vs Holywell head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Ammanford AFC vs Holywell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.7%, draw 25.5%, away 41.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.86 | 4.01 | 2.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.13 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.74 | 3.52 | 2.13 |
| Pinnacle | 2.86 | 3.56 | 2.23 |
| SBO | 2.68 | 3.23 | 2.13 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .