Wales Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 12
Caernarfon Town
vs
Barry Town
0 – 1 Full time
| 10′ | N. Daley | ||
| 43′ | E. DuganJ. Crosbie | ||
| 47′ | O. Cuddihy | ||
| 64′ | R. SearsH. Charsley | ||
| 64′ | A. CieslewiczO. Zanzala | ||
| 82′ | O. Cuddihy | ||
| 82′ | O. Cuddihy | ||
| 90′ | J. CanavanS. Nyamwanza | ||
| 90′ | D. BartonJ. Bernard |
Caernarfon Town
63%
Draw
19%
Barry Town
18%
Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town
| Probability | Caernarfon Town | Draw | Barry Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.1% | 14.4% | 15.5% |
| Market | 60.7% | 21.0% | 18.2% |
| Final | 63.1% | 19.4% | 17.5% |
| Edge | +9.3% | -6.6% | -2.7% |
Why Caernarfon Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.49 vs 1.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Caernarfon Town below the model: +9.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
99%
2+ goals
97%
3+ goals
89%
No goals
1%
Caernarfon Town and Barry Town expected goals
Caernarfon Town
3.49
Barry Town
1.75
Total expected goals: 5.24
Caernarfon Town and Barry Town attack and defence ratings
Caernarfon Town
Attack
1.79 +79%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Barry Town
Attack
1.29 +29%
Defence
1.23 +23%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town: result vs prediction
Caernarfon Town 0 – 1 Barry Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caernarfon Town | 63.1% | 1.59 | +9.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caernarfon Town | 63.1% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| Barry Town | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 89.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 10.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.5% |
| No | 19.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win | 53.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 29.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 6.6% |
| 3-2 | 5.8% | |
| 4-1 | 5.7% |
Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town stats
Caernarfon Town and Barry Town recent form
| Caernarfon Town |
DWDWWL |
| Barry Town |
LLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Caernarfon Town and Barry Town going into this match
Caernarfon Town record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.6 goals per game at home against 2.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Barry Town record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Caernarfon Town wins
2Draws
3Barry Town wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Barry Town | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Caernarfon Town | Barry Town | Wales Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-11 | Barry Town | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-07 | Caernarfon Town | Barry Town | Wales Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Caernarfon Town | Barry Town | Premier League | 5-2 |
| 2024-12-14 | Caernarfon Town | Barry Town | Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2024-09-21 | Barry Town | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-19 | Caernarfon Town | Barry Town | Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2023-09-30 | Barry Town | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2022-02-26 | Barry Town | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.7%, draw 21.0%, away 18.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 5.02 | 5.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 3.70 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.25 | 4.85 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.35 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 4.38 | 5.13 |
| SBO | 1.47 | 4.00 | 4.63 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.50 ▼ -0.39
X
4.33 ▲ +0.63
2
5.00 ▲ +1.56
9 snapshots recorded, from .