Airbus UK
vs
Trefelin
3 – 0 Full time
| 10′ | G. Peers | ||
| 20′ | K. Cooke | ||
| 33′ | T. BrockR. Piper | ||
| 35′ | J. Parry | ||
| 37′ | K. Georgievsky | ||
| 51′ | L. FallonJ. Clement | ||
| 61′ | B. Aman | ||
| 64′ | L. Caramella-GerrardL. Phillips | ||
| 67′ | G. Peers | ||
| 71′ | M. Blackwell-JonesJ. Palmer | ||
| 71′ | B. AmanC. Saunders | ||
| 78′ | O. CallandN. Williams | ||
| 78′ | K. CookeJ. Hughes |
Airbus UK vs Trefelin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Airbus UK vs Trefelin
| Probability | Airbus UK | Draw | Trefelin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.6% | 18.6% | 10.8% |
| Market | 64.6% | 19.7% | 15.7% |
| Final | 66.1% | 19.4% | 14.5% |
| Edge | +6.0% | -1.1% | -5.0% |
Why Airbus UK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Airbus UK below the model: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Airbus UK and Trefelin expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Airbus UK and Trefelin attack and defence ratings
Airbus UK
Trefelin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Airbus UK vs Trefelin: result vs prediction
Airbus UK 3 – 0 Trefelin
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Airbus UK vs Trefelin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Airbus UK | 66.1% | 1.51 | +6.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Airbus UK win | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Airbus UK | 66.1% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| Trefelin | 14.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Airbus UK win | 48.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 29.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 3-0 | 8.9% |
Airbus UK vs Trefelin stats
Airbus UK and Trefelin recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Airbus UK and Trefelin going into this match
Airbus UK record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trefelin record
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
Airbus UK vs Trefelin head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-12 | Airbus UK | Trefelin | Welsh Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Airbus UK vs Trefelin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.6%, draw 19.7%, away 15.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 5.16 | 6.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.33 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 5.34 | 4.86 |
| SBO | 1.37 | 4.24 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.80 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .