Briton Ferry
vs
Colwyn Bay
1 – 0 Full time
| 37′ | J. Kenny | ||
| 44′ | M. Hill | ||
| 45′ | T. Walters | ||
| 54′ | R. Owen | ||
| 59′ | C. HurfordJ. Lloyd | ||
| 62′ | J. KennyL. Robles | ||
| 62′ | J. WilliamsA. Edwards | ||
| 62′ | M. HillE. Roberts | ||
| 68′ | O. AndersonL. Bowen | ||
| 74′ | D. Packer | ||
| 76′ | W. Fuller | ||
| 87′ | T. WaltersJ. Jones |
Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay
| Probability | Briton Ferry | Draw | Colwyn Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.2% | 24.2% | 58.7% |
| Market | 19.9% | 23.5% | 56.6% |
| Final | 19.2% | 23.7% | 57.1% |
| Edge | -2.8% | +0.7% | +2.1% |
Why Colwyn Bay
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Colwyn Bay below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay attack and defence ratings
Briton Ferry
Colwyn Bay
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay: result vs prediction
Briton Ferry 1 – 0 Colwyn Bay
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colwyn Bay | 57.1% | 1.75 | +2.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.3% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Briton Ferry | 19.2% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Colwyn Bay | 57.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colwyn Bay win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 41.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 0-2 | 10.6% | |
| 0-1 | 10.1% |
Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay stats
Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay recent form
| Briton Ferry |
DDLLLL |
| Colwyn Bay |
WWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Briton Ferry and Colwyn Bay going into this match
Briton Ferry record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colwyn Bay record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Briton Ferry | Colwyn Bay | Wales Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Colwyn Bay | Briton Ferry | Wales Premier League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Briton Ferry vs Colwyn Bay odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.9%, draw 23.5%, away 56.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.80 | 4.35 | 1.64 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 4.40 | 3.95 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.60 |
| Marathonbet | 4.60 | 3.85 | 1.56 |
| Pinnacle | 4.62 | 3.94 | 1.65 |
| SBO | 4.24 | 3.57 | 1.58 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .