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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 11

Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County AFC

1 – 0 Full time

58′L. ReesH. Thomas
65′L. RoblesA. Davies
65′S. HartE. Roberts
65′J. KennyJ. Williams
79′K. McCarthy
88′C. BratleyM. Hill
90′D. Roberts

Llanelian Road, Old ColwynReferee: T. Owen

Colwyn Bay 56%
Draw 25%
Haverfordwest County AFC 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County AFC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County AFC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityColwyn BayDrawHaverfordwest County AFC
Model53.7%26.1%20.2%
Market56.5%24.4%19.0%
Final55.8%24.9%19.3%
Edge-2.8%+1.6%+1.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Colwyn Bay

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Colwyn Bay ↓ / Haverfordwest → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 12% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Colwyn Bay and Haverfordwest County AFC expected goals

Colwyn Bay 1.72
Haverfordwest County AFC 0.98

Total expected goals: 2.70

Colwyn Bay and Haverfordwest County AFC attack and defence ratings

Colwyn Bay

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Haverfordwest County AFC

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County AFC: result vs prediction

Colwyn Bay 1 – 0 Haverfordwest County AFC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County AFC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Colwyn Bay 55.8% 1.79 -2.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.6% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.3% 1.91 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 80.7% 1.24 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.3% 2.16 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Colwyn Bay55.8%
Draw24.9%
Haverfordwest County AFC19.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%
Both teams to scoreYes52.3%
No47.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)80.7%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)44.2%
Handicap -1Colwyn Bay win30.4%
Push (exactly one goal)23.3%
Loss46.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.5%
1-010.5%
2-010.0%

Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County AFC stats

Colwyn Bay and Haverfordwest County AFC recent form

newest first
Colwyn Bay WWWLWL
Haverfordwest County AFC WWDWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Colwyn Bay and Haverfordwest County AFC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Colwyn Bay record

  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.

Haverfordwest County AFC record

  • They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County AFC head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

1Colwyn Bay wins 1Draws 4Haverfordwest County AFC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-15Haverfordwest County AFCColwyn BayWales Premier League1-0
2025-09-13Colwyn BayHaverfordwest County AFCWales Premier League3-0
2024-04-13Haverfordwest County AFCColwyn BayPremier League3-1
2024-03-02Colwyn BayHaverfordwest County AFCPremier League0-0
2023-11-04Haverfordwest County AFCColwyn BayPremier League5-0
2023-09-02Colwyn BayHaverfordwest County AFCPremier League1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Colwyn Bay vs Haverfordwest County AFC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.5%, draw 24.4%, away 19.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.60 3.70 4.75
Bet365 1.57 3.70 5.00
BetVictor 1.53 3.25 4.20
Betano 1.67 3.60 4.45
Betfair 1.60 3.75 4.75
Marathonbet 1.58 3.70 4.65
Pinnacle 1.66 3.73 4.84
William Hill 1.62 3.60 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 ▼ -0.13
X 3.70 ▲ +0.20
2 4.75 ▲ +0.40

9 snapshots recorded, from .