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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 10

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Holywell

1 – 0 Full time

14′J. Sconce
22′T. Bibby
23′B. Ahmun
29′D. McGiveronC. Bedford
37′G. Walters
67′G. WaltersR. Watts
67′B. AhmunL. Rees
68′J. OwenJ. Wilson
71′O. DaviesJ. Reed
88′H. MorrisF. Murtas
88′T. DoganM. Davies
90′L. ReesH. Thomas
90′R. Watts

Bridge Meadow Stadium, HaverfordwestReferee: D. Morgan

Haverfordwest County AFC 69%
Draw 18%
Holywell 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Holywell overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Holywell

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHaverfordwest County AFCDrawHolywell
Model64.6%19.5%15.8%
Market70.1%17.9%12.0%
Final68.7%18.3%12.9%
Edge-5.5%+1.6%+3.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Haverfordwest County AFC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.17.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Haverfordwest ↓ / Holywell → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 8% 2 8% 9% 6% 3 7% 8% 4+ 7% 8% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

Haverfordwest County AFC and Holywell expected goals

Haverfordwest County AFC 2.45
Holywell 1.17

Total expected goals: 3.62

Haverfordwest County AFC and Holywell attack and defence ratings

Haverfordwest County AFC

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Holywell

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 1.96 +96%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Holywell: result vs prediction

Haverfordwest County AFC 1 – 0 Holywell

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Holywell markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Haverfordwest County AFC 68.7% 1.45 -5.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.0% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.8% 1.57 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.1% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Haverfordwest County AFC win 43.7% 2.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Haverfordwest County AFC68.7%
Draw18.3%
Holywell12.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.0%
Under 2.530.0%
Both teams to scoreYes63.8%
No36.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.1%
12 (either side)81.7%
X2 (draw or away)31.3%
Handicap -1Haverfordwest County AFC win43.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss35.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.4%
1-18.5%
2-08.0%

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Holywell stats

Haverfordwest County AFC and Holywell recent form

newest first
Haverfordwest County AFC WDWLLL
Holywell LLDLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Haverfordwest County AFC and Holywell going into this match

league record before kick-off

Haverfordwest County AFC record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.

Holywell record

  • They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Holywell head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Holywell odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 70.1%, draw 17.9%, away 12.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.28 5.05 7.85
Bet365 1.28 5.25 7.00
BetVictor 1.25 4.33 6.00
Betano 1.33 4.90 7.10
Betfair 1.25 5.00 8.00
Marathonbet 1.27 5.05 7.50
Pinnacle 1.31 5.24 8.01
SBO 1.31 4.70 6.09
William Hill 1.33 4.80 7.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.28 ▼ -0.35
X 5.00 ▲ +1.00
2 7.50 ▲ +3.16

8 snapshots recorded, from .