Ammanford AFC
vs
Penybont
1 – 5 Full time
| 9′ | M. Davies | ||
| 36′ | T. Mehew | ||
| 41′ | T. Walker | ||
| 45′ | N. Wood | ||
| 46′ | L. ShephardA. Debono | ||
| 46′ | M. DaviesI. Phillips | ||
| 46′ | J. EvansM. Fisher | ||
| 46′ | A. OrmeM. Delaney | ||
| 46′ | L. SylvesterH. Rowe | ||
| 46′ | A. JohnE. Griffiths | ||
| 63′ | D. BarrowJ. Leko | ||
| 63′ | T. WalkerE. Cann | ||
| 64′ | L. Davies | ||
| 73′ | C. ShirtJ. M. Case | ||
| 76′ | A. BakerC. Venables | ||
| 87′ | E. Cann | ||
| 90′ | M. Delaney |
Ammanford AFC vs Penybont overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ammanford AFC vs Penybont
| Probability | Ammanford AFC | Draw | Penybont |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.9% | 20.9% | 68.1% |
| Market | 7.0% | 15.6% | 77.4% |
| Final | 8.0% | 16.9% | 75.1% |
| Edge | +4.0% | +5.3% | -9.3% |
Why Penybont
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ammanford AFC and Penybont expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Ammanford AFC and Penybont attack and defence ratings
Ammanford AFC
Penybont
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ammanford AFC vs Penybont: result vs prediction
Ammanford AFC 1 – 5 Penybont
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
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Before and after this match
Ammanford AFC vs Penybont markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 75.1% | 1.33 | -9.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 92.0% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ammanford AFC | 8.0% |
| Draw | 16.9% | |
| Penybont | 75.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.3% |
| No | 53.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 24.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 92.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 44.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 31.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 13.0% |
| 0-1 | 11.5% | |
| 1-1 | 10.0% |
Ammanford AFC vs Penybont stats
Ammanford AFC and Penybont recent form
| Ammanford AFC |
DLLLDL |
| Penybont |
WWWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ammanford AFC and Penybont going into this match
Ammanford AFC record
- They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penybont record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ammanford AFC vs Penybont head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-20 | Penybont | Ammanford AFC | League Cup | 1-2 |
| 2019-05-07 | Ammanford AFC | Penybont | FAW Championship | 1-3 |
| 2018-10-26 | Penybont | Ammanford AFC | FAW Championship | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ammanford AFC vs Penybont odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 7.0%, draw 15.6%, away 77.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 16.00 | 6.05 | 1.12 |
| Bet365 | 11.00 | 5.75 | 1.18 |
| BetVictor | 10.00 | 4.75 | 1.13 |
| Betano | 12.00 | 5.80 | 1.19 |
| Betfair | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.15 |
| Marathonbet | 15.25 | 5.80 | 1.14 |
| Pinnacle | 13.15 | 6.62 | 1.17 |
| SBO | 9.64 | 5.42 | 1.17 |
| William Hill | 15.00 | 5.80 | 1.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .