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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 10

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cardiff MET

1 – 0 Full time

28′S. Snaith
44′J. JonesS. Flynn
59′A. McCoyM. Woodcock
66′B. GaughanA. Wildig
70′I. Murray
81′J. HodkinH. Mehasseb
81′F. DeaneC. Partridge
81′J. HooperM. McKenzie
88′S. Dymond-HallJ. Edwards
88′S. JonesH. Matthews

Essity Stadium, FlintReferee: R. Wright

GAP Connah S Quay FC 59%
Draw 23%
Cardiff MET 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cardiff MET overview

Garuda Lions analysis: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cardiff MET

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGAP Connah S Quay FCDrawCardiff MET
Model50.7%24.5%24.8%
Market61.7%22.1%16.3%
Final58.9%22.7%18.4%
Edge-11.0%+2.5%+8.5%

Confidence: Low

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.27.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

GAP Connah S Q ↓ / Cardiff MET → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET expected goals

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.88
Cardiff MET 1.27

Total expected goals: 3.15

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET attack and defence ratings

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Cardiff MET

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cardiff MET: result vs prediction

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1 – 0 Cardiff MET

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cardiff MET markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 58.9% 1.70 -11.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.0% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.0% 1.61 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.6% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.3% 2.03 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2GAP Connah S Quay FC58.9%
Draw22.7%
Cardiff MET18.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.0%
Under 2.539.0%
Both teams to scoreYes62.0%
No38.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.6%
12 (either side)77.3%
X2 (draw or away)41.1%
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win29.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss49.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.2%
2-19.6%
2-07.6%

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cardiff MET stats

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET recent form

newest first
GAP Connah S Quay FC WLDWWW
Cardiff MET DDWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET going into this match

league record before kick-off

GAP Connah S Quay FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Cardiff MET record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cardiff MET head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7GAP Connah S Quay FC wins 1Draws 2Cardiff MET wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-01Cardiff METGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League0-3
2025-09-13GAP Connah S Quay FCCardiff METWales Premier League1-1
2024-11-02GAP Connah S Quay FCCardiff METPremier League1-0
2024-09-21Cardiff METGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League2-1
2024-04-06Cardiff METGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-3
2024-02-24GAP Connah S Quay FCCardiff METPremier League2-1
2023-11-04Cardiff METGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League3-1
2023-09-16GAP Connah S Quay FCCardiff METPremier League4-0
2023-04-08Cardiff METGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-2
2023-02-25GAP Connah S Quay FCCardiff METPremier League2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cardiff MET odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.7%, draw 22.1%, away 16.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.45 4.05 5.90
Bet365 1.45 4.10 5.50
BetVictor 1.40 3.60 4.80
Betfair 1.44 4.20 5.50
Marathonbet 1.44 4.05 5.65
Pinnacle 1.51 4.30 5.41
SBO 1.47 3.74 4.94
William Hill 1.50 4.00 5.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.45 ▼ -0.27
X 4.05 ▲ +0.40
2 5.50 ▲ +1.18

8 snapshots recorded, from .