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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 11

Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

1 – 4 Full time

10′D. Barton
19′J. Hodkin
30′H. Franklin
30′N. Daley
37′H. Franklin
46′S. FlynnR. Watson
60′D. BartonJ. Lester
63′J. Hodkin
68′J. Lester
69′A. HughesA. McCoy
69′C. WestC. Partridge
69′J. BernardR. Schwank
82′J. HodkinH. Mehasseb
82′H. FranklinD. Stephenson

Jenner Park, BarryReferee: J. A. Jones

Barry Town 26%
Draw 25%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 48%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBarry TownDrawGAP Connah S Quay FC
Model27.8%24.6%47.6%
Market26.0%25.4%48.6%
Final26.5%25.2%48.3%
Edge+1.8%-0.8%-0.9%

Confidence: Low

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Barry Town ↓ / GAP Connah S Q → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 7% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 5%

Barry Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC expected goals

Barry Town 1.39
GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.86

Total expected goals: 3.26

Barry Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC attack and defence ratings

Barry Town

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 1.07 +7%

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.64 -36%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: result vs prediction

Barry Town 1 – 4 GAP Connah S Quay FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 48.3% 2.07 -0.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.2% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.5% 1.55 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.4% 1.91 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Barry Town26.5%
Draw25.2%
GAP Connah S Quay FC48.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%
Both teams to scoreYes64.5%
No35.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)51.7%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)73.5%
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win27.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss52.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
1-29.3%
2-17.0%

Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC stats

Barry Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC recent form

newest first
Barry Town LDWLWW
GAP Connah S Quay FC WWLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Barry Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Barry Town record

  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

GAP Connah S Quay FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Barry Town wins 2Draws 4GAP Connah S Quay FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-29GAP Connah S Quay FCBarry TownWales Premier League1-1
2026-02-21Barry TownGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League1-0
2026-01-03GAP Connah S Quay FCBarry TownWales Premier League3-1
2025-09-27Barry TownGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League0-0
2025-04-13GAP Connah S Quay FCBarry TownPremier League0-2
2025-02-22Barry TownGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-2
2024-11-09Barry TownGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League3-2
2024-09-07GAP Connah S Quay FCBarry TownPremier League1-2
2023-12-02GAP Connah S Quay FCBarry TownPremier League7-0
2023-09-09Barry TownGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League1-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Barry Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.2%, draw 25.4%, away 48.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.50 3.54 1.86
Bet365 3.40 3.60 1.83
BetVictor 3.13 3.25 1.75
Betano 3.45 3.45 1.93
Betfair 3.50 3.60 1.85
Marathonbet 3.42 3.54 1.84
Pinnacle 3.67 3.47 1.93
William Hill 3.40 3.60 1.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.45 ▲ +0.51
X 3.54 ▲ +0.19
2 1.85 ▼ -0.37

9 snapshots recorded, from .