Wales Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 11
Cardiff MET
vs
Caernarfon Town
2 – 2 Full time
| 13′ | J. Payne | ||
| 14′ | P. Mendes | ||
| 19′ | L. Mwandwe | ||
| 27′ | N. Edwards | ||
| 37′ | L. Mwandwe | ||
| 37′ | L. Mwandwe | ||
| 51′ | M. Jones | ||
| 64′ | J. Veale | ||
| 69′ | A. WildigJ. Edwards | ||
| 73′ | R. SearsO. Zanzala | ||
| 73′ | S. BradleyS. Nyamwanza | ||
| 86′ | C. CravenJ. Hooper | ||
| 87′ | O. Evans | ||
| 90′ | S. SnaithH. Matthews | ||
| 90′ | C. Marriott | ||
| 90′ | A. CieslewiczP. Mooney | ||
| 90′ | Z. Clarke |
Cardiff MET
27%
Draw
23%
Caernarfon Town
50%
Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town
| Probability | Cardiff MET | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.4% | 20.8% | 52.8% |
| Market | 27.5% | 24.0% | 48.6% |
| Final | 27.2% | 23.2% | 49.6% |
| Edge | -1.0% | -3.2% | +4.2% |
Why Caernarfon Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Caernarfon Town below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
92%
3+ goals
77%
No goals
2%
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town expected goals
Cardiff MET
1.69
Caernarfon Town
2.39
Total expected goals: 4.08
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town attack and defence ratings
Cardiff MET
Attack
1.13 +13%
Defence
0.92 -8%
Caernarfon Town
Attack
1.83 +83%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town: result vs prediction
Cardiff MET 2 – 2 Caernarfon Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caernarfon Town | 49.6% | 2.02 | +4.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff MET | 27.2% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Caernarfon Town | 49.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.8% |
| No | 25.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.2% |
| 1-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town stats
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town recent form
| Cardiff MET |
LDDWWL |
| Caernarfon Town |
WDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town going into this match
Cardiff MET record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Caernarfon Town record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.6 goals per game at home against 3.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Cardiff MET wins
2Draws
4Caernarfon Town wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Cardiff MET | Caernarfon Town | Welsh Cup | 2-4 |
| 2025-09-28 | Caernarfon Town | Cardiff MET | Wales Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2025-08-09 | Cardiff MET | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-11 | Caernarfon Town | Cardiff MET | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-19 | Caernarfon Town | Cardiff MET | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Cardiff MET | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 4-2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Cardiff MET | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-31 | Caernarfon Town | Cardiff MET | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-10 | Caernarfon Town | Cardiff MET | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-23 | Caernarfon Town | Cardiff MET | Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.2%, draw 24.3%, away 48.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.39 | 3.70 | 1.85 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.80 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 3.32 | 3.70 | 1.83 |
| Pinnacle | 3.22 | 3.99 | 1.93 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.70 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.27 ▲ +0.23
X
3.75 ▲ +0.20
2
1.85 ▼ -0.23
9 snapshots recorded, from .