Penybont
vs
Airbus UK
2 – 1 Full time
| 26′ | L. Shephard | ||
| 54′ | R. Hill | ||
| 61′ | A. BakerO. Pritchard | ||
| 68′ | D. BarrowE. Cann | ||
| 71′ | E. Vaughan | ||
| 72′ | J. RobertsJ. Parry | ||
| 74′ | R. HillM. Manga | ||
| 76′ | M. Manga | ||
| 79′ | E. Cann | ||
| 84′ | M. Blackwell-JonesJ. Hughes | ||
| 90′ | J. Parry | ||
| 90′ | O. Pritchard |
Penybont vs Airbus UK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penybont vs Airbus UK
| Probability | Penybont | Draw | Airbus UK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.7% | 23.8% | 21.5% |
| Market | 38.3% | 25.9% | 35.8% |
| Final | 42.4% | 25.4% | 32.2% |
| Edge | +16.4% | -2.1% | -14.3% |
Why Penybont
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penybont below the model: +16.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penybont and Airbus UK expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
Penybont and Airbus UK attack and defence ratings
Penybont
Airbus UK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penybont vs Airbus UK: result vs prediction
Penybont 2 – 1 Airbus UK
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penybont vs Airbus UK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 42.4% | 2.36 | +16.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 42.4% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Airbus UK | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% |
| No | 39.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 32.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 45.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Penybont vs Airbus UK stats
Penybont and Airbus UK recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penybont and Airbus UK going into this match
Penybont record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Airbus UK record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penybont vs Airbus UK head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-03 | Penybont | Airbus UK | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-15 | Airbus UK | Penybont | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2019-11-09 | Airbus UK | Penybont | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2019-09-21 | Penybont | Airbus UK | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2016-12-03 | Penybont | Airbus UK | Welsh Cup | 4-1 |
| 2013-12-07 | Penybont | Airbus UK | Welsh Cup | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penybont vs Airbus UK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.8%, draw 25.9%, away 35.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.44 | 3.32 | 2.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.00 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Marathonbet | 2.43 | 3.34 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.86 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .