Trefelin
vs
The New Saints
1 – 3 Full time
| 8′ | R. Hughes | ||
| 15′ | R. Holden | ||
| 34′ | The New Saints | ||
| 36′ | J. Jones | ||
| 64′ | D. SimeuZ. Nolan | ||
| 65′ | J. Bodenham | ||
| 66′ | K. OwenD. Horgan-Evans | ||
| 66′ | B. AmanR. Piper | ||
| 73′ | J. LockI. Jefferies | ||
| 73′ | S. MacDonaldK. Parker | ||
| 73′ | L. Caramella-GerrardO. Degelman | ||
| 73′ | J. JonesO. Davies | ||
| 78′ | Trefelin | ||
| 79′ | B. YoungB. Clark | ||
| 79′ | R. HoldenE. Farrell |
Trefelin vs The New Saints overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Trefelin vs The New Saints
| Probability | Trefelin | Draw | The New Saints |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 3.6% | 12.5% | 84.0% |
| Market | 3.4% | 6.5% | 90.1% |
| Final | 3.4% | 8.0% | 88.6% |
| Edge | +0.2% | +6.0% | -6.2% |
Why The New Saints
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.67 vs 0.44.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Trefelin and The New Saints expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.11
Trefelin and The New Saints attack and defence ratings
Trefelin
The New Saints
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Trefelin vs The New Saints: result vs prediction
Trefelin 1 – 3 The New Saints
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Trefelin vs The New Saints markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 88.6% | 1.13 | -6.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 96.6% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trefelin | 3.4% |
| Draw | 8.0% | |
| The New Saints | 88.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.7% |
| No | 66.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 11.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 92.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 96.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 64.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 16.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 15.9% |
| 0-3 | 14.2% | |
| 0-1 | 11.4% |
Trefelin vs The New Saints stats
Trefelin and The New Saints recent form
| Trefelin |
DLLDLD |
| The New Saints |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Trefelin and The New Saints going into this match
Trefelin record
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
The New Saints record
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Trefelin vs The New Saints head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Trefelin vs The New Saints odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 3.3%, draw 6.5%, away 90.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 44.00 | 15.00 | 1.01 |
| Bet365 | 29.00 | 15.00 | 1.04 |
| BetVictor | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.04 |
| Betano | 23.00 | 9.25 | 1.05 |
| Betfair | 41.00 | 14.00 | 1.03 |
| Marathonbet | 27.00 | 11.75 | 1.00 |
| Pinnacle | 26.23 | 17.28 | 1.04 |
| William Hill | 36.00 | 17.00 | 1.04 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .