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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 9

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Airbus UK

3 – 0 Full time

28′I. Murray
32′R. Watson
46′R. WatsonS. Flynn
58′S. Flynn
60′J. Hodkin
63′J. ParryJ. Roberts
71′J. Jones
74′M. WoodcockA. Hughes
74′I. MurrayA. McCoy
77′G. PeersO. Lancely
77′J. EvansM. Blackwell-Jones
77′F. DeaneC. Partridge
79′C. West
86′J. HodkinH. Mehasseb
90′C. West

Essity Stadium, FlintReferee: M. James

GAP Connah S Quay FC 61%
Draw 22%
Airbus UK 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Airbus UK overview

Garuda Lions analysis: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Airbus UK

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGAP Connah S Quay FCDrawAirbus UK
Model52.3%24.2%23.5%
Market64.2%20.8%15.0%
Final61.3%21.6%17.1%
Edge-11.9%+3.5%+8.5%

Confidence: Low

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.24.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

GAP Connah S Q ↓ / Airbus UK → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Airbus UK expected goals

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.92
Airbus UK 1.24

Total expected goals: 3.16

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Airbus UK attack and defence ratings

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Airbus UK

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Airbus UK: result vs prediction

GAP Connah S Quay FC 3 – 0 Airbus UK

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Airbus UK markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 61.3% 1.63 -11.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.1% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.6% 1.62 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.9% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.7% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2GAP Connah S Quay FC61.3%
Draw21.6%
Airbus UK17.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%
Both teams to scoreYes61.6%
No38.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.9%
12 (either side)78.4%
X2 (draw or away)38.7%
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win30.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss47.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
2-19.7%
2-07.8%

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Airbus UK stats

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Airbus UK recent form

newest first
GAP Connah S Quay FC LDWWWW
Airbus UK LWWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Airbus UK going into this match

league record before kick-off

GAP Connah S Quay FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Airbus UK record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Airbus UK head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

10GAP Connah S Quay FC wins 0Draws 0Airbus UK wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-02-04GAP Connah S Quay FCAirbus UKWelsh Cup5-0
2022-12-02Airbus UKGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League1-2
2022-08-19GAP Connah S Quay FCAirbus UKPremier League1-0
2021-09-21GAP Connah S Quay FCAirbus UKLeague Cup6-3
2019-12-30Airbus UKGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-4
2019-12-26GAP Connah S Quay FCAirbus UKPremier League2-1
2016-12-30GAP Connah S Quay FCAirbus UKPremier League5-1
2016-12-26Airbus UKGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-3
2016-05-14GAP Connah S Quay FCAirbus UKPremier League1-0
2016-04-08GAP Connah S Quay FCAirbus UKPremier League2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Airbus UK odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.2%, draw 20.8%, away 15.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.39 4.35 6.38
Bet365 1.40 4.33 6.00
BetVictor 1.33 3.90 5.25
Betano 1.47 4.25 5.50
Betfair 1.33 4.60 6.50
Marathonbet 1.38 4.35 6.10
Pinnacle 1.43 4.59 6.17
SBO 1.42 3.98 5.22
William Hill 1.44 4.20 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.40 ▼ -0.05
X 4.33 ▲ +0.03
2 6.00 ▲ +0.06

10 snapshots recorded, from .