Penybont
vs
Briton Ferry
3 – 2 Full time
| 8′ | M. Melbourne | ||
| 9′ | T. Walters | ||
| 12′ | J. Leko | ||
| 13′ | T. Walker | ||
| 41′ | C. Venables | ||
| 43′ | J. Leko | ||
| 46′ | J. JonesT. Jenkins | ||
| 60′ | J. LekoM. Manga | ||
| 60′ | T. MehewD. Jefferies | ||
| 66′ | L. CooperJ. Lloyd | ||
| 66′ | T. PriceL. Herdman | ||
| 69′ | T. WalkerE. Cann | ||
| 70′ | A. BakerA. Debono | ||
| 75′ | T. Jenkins | ||
| 78′ | O. Anderson | ||
| 82′ | A. Gammond | ||
| 83′ | A. GammondT. Cadeau | ||
| 90′ | D. Higgs |
Penybont vs Briton Ferry overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penybont vs Briton Ferry
| Probability | Penybont | Draw | Briton Ferry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.2% | 29.9% | 16.9% |
| Market | 61.9% | 23.1% | 15.0% |
| Final | 59.7% | 24.8% | 15.4% |
| Edge | -8.7% | +6.8% | +1.9% |
Why Penybont
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penybont and Briton Ferry expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.08
Penybont and Briton Ferry attack and defence ratings
Penybont
Briton Ferry
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penybont vs Briton Ferry: result vs prediction
Penybont 3 – 2 Briton Ferry
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penybont vs Briton Ferry markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 59.7% | 1.67 | -8.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 59.7% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Briton Ferry | 15.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.3% |
| No | 61.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 46.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.3% |
| 0-0 | 13.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.1% |
Penybont vs Briton Ferry stats
Penybont and Briton Ferry recent form
| Penybont |
WWDDWW |
| Briton Ferry |
LLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penybont and Briton Ferry going into this match
Penybont record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Briton Ferry record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Penybont vs Briton Ferry head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | Penybont | Briton Ferry | Wales Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Briton Ferry | Penybont | Welsh Cup | 0-5 |
| 2025-10-03 | Briton Ferry | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Penybont | Briton Ferry | League Cup | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-24 | Penybont | Briton Ferry | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-11 | Briton Ferry | Penybont | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-08-03 | Briton Ferry | Penybont | League Cup | 0-3 |
| 2019-03-23 | Penybont | Briton Ferry | FAW Championship | 2-0 |
| 2018-12-28 | Briton Ferry | Penybont | FAW Championship | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penybont vs Briton Ferry odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.9%, draw 23.1%, away 15.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 3.88 | 6.29 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 3.40 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 3.88 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.06 | 6.33 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 3.64 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .