Trefelin
vs
Penybont
0 – 1 Full time
| 28′ | J. Jones | ||
| 39′ | M. Thomas | ||
| 57′ | A. Baker | ||
| 61′ | A. BakerJ. Leko | ||
| 65′ | E. CannC. Venables | ||
| 68′ | B. AmanJ. Davies | ||
| 68′ | K. Georgievsky | ||
| 71′ | M. Manga | ||
| 72′ | T. Walker | ||
| 80′ | M. ThomasJ. Jones | ||
| 80′ | O. DegelmanD. John | ||
| 80′ | T. WalkerI. Phillips | ||
| 83′ | T. BrockR. Piper | ||
| 83′ | K. GeorgievskyL. Phillips | ||
| 88′ | C. Venables | ||
| 90′ | J. Leko |
Trefelin vs Penybont overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Trefelin vs Penybont
| Probability | Trefelin | Draw | Penybont |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.7% | 26.8% | 58.6% |
| Market | 14.2% | 19.0% | 66.8% |
| Final | 14.3% | 20.9% | 64.8% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +7.8% | -8.3% |
Why Penybont
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Trefelin and Penybont expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
Trefelin and Penybont attack and defence ratings
Trefelin
Penybont
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Trefelin vs Penybont: result vs prediction
Trefelin 0 – 1 Penybont
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Barry Town v Llandudno — match page
- Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town — team news & stats
- Haverfordwest County AFC vs Briton Ferry
- Cambrian & Clydach v Holywell — match page
- Airbus UK vs The New Saints — team news & stats
- Flint Town United v Cardiff MET — match page
- Colwyn Bay vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
Before and after this match
Trefelin vs Penybont markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 64.8% | 1.54 | -8.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trefelin | 14.3% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Penybont | 64.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.2% |
| No | 58.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 35.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 32.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 41.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-2 | 13.0% | |
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
Trefelin vs Penybont stats
Trefelin and Penybont recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Trefelin and Penybont going into this match
Trefelin record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Penybont record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Trefelin vs Penybont head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-02 | Trefelin | Penybont | League Cup | 1-6 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Trefelin vs Penybont odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.2%, draw 19.0%, away 66.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.00 | 4.75 | 1.34 |
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 3.80 | 1.30 |
| Marathonbet | 6.75 | 4.75 | 1.33 |
| Pinnacle | 6.11 | 5.23 | 1.38 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .