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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 8

Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town

0 – 5 Full time

19′C. Marriott
22′P. Mooney
28′C. L. DaviesL. Owen
34′O. Evans
37′S. Bradley
44′L. Owen
61′J. M. CaseC. Shirt
62′Z. ClarkeO. Zanzala
62′O. EvansJ. Canavan
67′L. Davies
68′S. Bradley
71′S. BradleyM. Jones
71′A. CieslewiczS. Nyamwanza
74′A. JohnR. Davies
74′J. EvansH. Lloyd
85′P. MendesH. Wyn
90′P. Mooney
90′H. Wyn

Ammanford Recreation Ground, AmmanfordReferee: I. A. Griffith

Ammanford AFC 8%
Draw 14%
Caernarfon Town 78%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAmmanford AFCDrawCaernarfon Town
Model13.4%18.3%68.4%
Market6.0%13.2%80.8%
Final7.8%14.4%77.7%
Edge+7.3%+5.1%-12.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Caernarfon Town

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ammanford AFC ↓ / Caernarfon Tow → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 9% 7% 9% 1 8% 9% 8% 9% 2 5% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

Ammanford AFC and Caernarfon Town expected goals

Ammanford AFC 1.08
Caernarfon Town 2.55

Total expected goals: 3.64

Ammanford AFC and Caernarfon Town attack and defence ratings

Ammanford AFC

Attack 0.61 -39%
Defence 1.36 +36%

Caernarfon Town

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town: result vs prediction

Ammanford AFC 0 – 5 Caernarfon Town

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Caernarfon Town 77.7% 1.29 -12.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.3% 1.42 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.7% 1.62 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 92.2% 1.09 — —
Handicap -1 Caernarfon Town win 47.6% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ammanford AFC7.8%
Draw14.4%
Caernarfon Town77.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.3%
Under 2.529.7%
Both teams to scoreYes61.7%
No38.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)22.3%
12 (either side)85.6%
X2 (draw or away)92.2%
Handicap -1Caernarfon Town win47.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss31.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.3%
0-28.6%
1-18.0%

Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town stats

Ammanford AFC and Caernarfon Town recent form

newest first
Ammanford AFC LLDLLD
Caernarfon Town WLWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ammanford AFC and Caernarfon Town going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ammanford AFC record

  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Caernarfon Town record

  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Ammanford AFC wins 0Draws 1Caernarfon Town wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2020-01-24Ammanford AFCCaernarfon TownWelsh Cup0-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ammanford AFC vs Caernarfon Town odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 6.3%, draw 14.1%, away 79.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 17.00 6.85 1.11
Bet365 15.00 7.00 1.12
BetVictor 10.50 5.50 1.08
Dafabet 8.80 5.40 1.30
Marathonbet 17.00 6.85 1.11
Pinnacle 14.55 7.24 1.15
Superbet 7.80 5.15 1.29
Unibet 8.00 4.80 1.28
William Hill 15.00 6.50 1.17

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 15.00 ▲ +6.80
X 6.85 ▲ +1.77
2 1.12 ▼ -0.17

6 snapshots recorded, from .