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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 8

Colwyn Bay vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

2 – 1 Full time

9′C. West
35′A. Hughes
46′A. MooreD. Roberts
53′J. Davies
56′S. Forde
59′D. StephensonH. Franklin
60′J. HodkinH. Mehasseb
64′L. RoblesJ. Kenny
66′S. Forde
73′C. Bratley
73′D. Roberts
74′A. Sharif
78′A. HughesA. McCoy
78′M. WoodcockF. Redshaw
78′D. CowanR. Watson
80′J. Davies
90′J. DaviesM. Hill

Llanelian Road, Old ColwynReferee: T. Owen

Colwyn Bay 26%
Draw 27%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Colwyn Bay vs GAP Connah S Quay FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Colwyn Bay vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityColwyn BayDrawGAP Connah S Quay FC
Model17.3%25.5%57.1%
Market28.6%27.7%43.7%
Final25.8%27.2%47.1%
Edge-11.2%-2.2%+13.4%

Confidence: Low

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices GAP Connah S Quay FC below the model: +13.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Colwyn Bay ↓ / GAP Connah S Q → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 12% 11% 7% 1 12% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Colwyn Bay and GAP Connah S Quay FC expected goals

Colwyn Bay 0.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.76

Total expected goals: 2.63

Colwyn Bay and GAP Connah S Quay FC attack and defence ratings

Colwyn Bay

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 0.94 -6%

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Colwyn Bay vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: result vs prediction

Colwyn Bay 2 – 1 GAP Connah S Quay FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

Colwyn Bay vs GAP Connah S Quay FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 47.1% 2.12 +13.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.0% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score No 50.6% 1.98 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 74.2% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.9% 2.33 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Colwyn Bay25.8%
Draw27.2%
GAP Connah S Quay FC47.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.0%
Under 2.551.0%
Both teams to scoreYes49.4%
No50.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.9%
12 (either side)72.8%
X2 (draw or away)74.2%
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win33.1%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss42.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
0-111.5%
0-211.1%

Colwyn Bay vs GAP Connah S Quay FC stats

Colwyn Bay and GAP Connah S Quay FC recent form

newest first
Colwyn Bay LWLWLD
GAP Connah S Quay FC DWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Colwyn Bay and GAP Connah S Quay FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Colwyn Bay record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

GAP Connah S Quay FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Colwyn Bay vs GAP Connah S Quay FC head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1Colwyn Bay wins 3Draws 4GAP Connah S Quay FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-18GAP Connah S Quay FCColwyn BayWales Premier League1-1
2026-01-24Colwyn BayGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League2-2
2025-12-05GAP Connah S Quay FCColwyn BayWales Premier League2-1
2025-08-10Colwyn BayGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League1-1
2023-11-29Colwyn BayGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League2-3
2023-09-26GAP Connah S Quay FCColwyn BayPremier League2-1
2022-11-12GAP Connah S Quay FCColwyn BayWelsh Cup4-0
2022-02-19GAP Connah S Quay FCColwyn BayWelsh Cup0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Colwyn Bay vs GAP Connah S Quay FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.6%, draw 27.7%, away 43.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.18 3.28 2.08
Bet365 3.10 3.25 2.05
BetVictor 2.90 2.90 1.95
Betano 3.15 3.30 2.10
Betfair 3.25 3.25 2.05
Marathonbet 3.12 3.28 2.06
Pinnacle 3.18 3.46 2.11
SBO 3.11 3.01 2.02
William Hill 3.25 3.20 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.15 ▲ +0.13
X 3.25 —
2 2.06 ▼ -0.09

5 snapshots recorded, from .