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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 7

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC

1 – 1 Full time

20′J. WilsonJ. Owen
29′H. FranklinM. Woodcock
39′G. Walters
50′J. Walker
62′M. StoneA. Sharif
62′R. WatsonF. Redshaw
73′F. DeaneD. Stephenson
73′M. Woodcock
74′J. HodkinH. Mehasseb
76′B. AhmunL. Rees
77′Haverfordwest County AFC
80′K. Kenniford
85′L. Rees
90′D. HawkinsH. Thomas

Essity Stadium, FlintReferee: R. Jenkins

GAP Connah S Quay FC 69%
Draw 19%
Haverfordwest County AFC 12%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGAP Connah S Quay FCDrawHaverfordwest County AFC
Model69.3%20.5%10.2%
Market69.2%18.7%12.0%
Final69.2%19.2%11.6%
Edge+0.1%+1.7%-1.8%

Confidence: Low

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

GAP Connah S Q ↓ / Haverfordwest → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 12% 10% 2 13% 9% 3 9% 4+ 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Haverfordwest County AFC expected goals

GAP Connah S Quay FC 2.12
Haverfordwest County AFC 0.70

Total expected goals: 2.82

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Haverfordwest County AFC attack and defence ratings

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Haverfordwest County AFC

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC: result vs prediction

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1 – 1 Haverfordwest County AFC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 69.2% 1.44 +0.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.5% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score No 54.7% 1.83 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 88.4% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 GAP Connah S Quay FC win 45.5% 2.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2GAP Connah S Quay FC69.2%
Draw19.2%
Haverfordwest County AFC11.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.5%
Under 2.546.5%
Both teams to scoreYes45.3%
No54.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)88.4%
12 (either side)80.8%
X2 (draw or away)30.8%
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win45.5%
Push (exactly one goal)23.8%
Loss30.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-013.4%
1-011.7%
1-19.8%

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC stats

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Haverfordwest County AFC recent form

newest first
GAP Connah S Quay FC WWWWWL
Haverfordwest County AFC WLLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Haverfordwest County AFC going into this match

league record before kick-off

GAP Connah S Quay FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Haverfordwest County AFC record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4GAP Connah S Quay FC wins 3Draws 3Haverfordwest County AFC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-10-25GAP Connah S Quay FCHaverfordwest County AFCWales Premier League3-3
2025-09-20Haverfordwest County AFCGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League1-3
2024-10-12Haverfordwest County AFCGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-0
2024-08-11GAP Connah S Quay FCHaverfordwest County AFCPremier League0-1
2023-11-19GAP Connah S Quay FCHaverfordwest County AFCPremier League1-2
2023-09-23Haverfordwest County AFCGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League1-3
2023-01-31Haverfordwest County AFCGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League2-1
2022-10-01GAP Connah S Quay FCHaverfordwest County AFCPremier League1-0
2022-04-18GAP Connah S Quay FCHaverfordwest County AFCPremier League3-0
2022-03-26Haverfordwest County AFCGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 69.2%, draw 18.7%, away 12.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.36 4.40 7.00
1xBet 1.29 5.00 8.10
Bet365 1.27 4.75 8.00
BetVictor 1.25 3.90 7.00
Betano 1.30 4.70 8.50
Betfair 1.25 5.00 8.50
Dafabet 1.29 5.20 9.40
Marathonbet 1.23 5.30 9.20
Pinnacle 1.30 5.66 7.48
SBO 1.31 4.20 6.18
Superbet 1.45 4.35 5.70
Unibet 1.32 4.90 6.50
William Hill 1.35 4.80 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.30 ▼ -0.10
X 4.80 ▲ +0.25
2 7.48 ▲ +1.48

4 snapshots recorded, from .