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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 6

Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

1 – 2 Full time

5′C. West
25′L. MendesC. Wilson
49′C. West
58′M. WoodcockD. Stephenson
58′H. MehassebM. Stone
63′T. AjibolaH. Dean
77′J. ThornJ. Coll
86′I. MurrayF. Deane
90′H. Dean

Essity Stadium, FlintReferee: A. Jones

Flint Town United 18%
Draw 24%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 58%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFlint Town UnitedDrawGAP Connah S Quay FC
Model16.3%24.2%59.5%
Market19.2%23.7%57.1%
Final18.5%23.9%57.7%
Edge-2.9%+0.5%+2.4%

Confidence: Low

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices GAP Connah S Quay FC below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Flint Town Uni ↓ / GAP Connah S Q → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 11% 11% 7% 1 12% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 52%
No goals 7%

Flint Town United and GAP Connah S Quay FC expected goals

Flint Town United 0.89
GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.87

Total expected goals: 2.76

Flint Town United and GAP Connah S Quay FC attack and defence ratings

Flint Town United

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 0.98 -2%

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 0.73 -27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: result vs prediction

Flint Town United 1 – 2 GAP Connah S Quay FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 57.7% 1.73 +2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.1% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.9% 1.97 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.5% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.5% 2.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Flint Town United18.5%
Draw23.9%
GAP Connah S Quay FC57.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%
Both teams to scoreYes50.9%
No49.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)42.3%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)81.5%
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win35.7%
Push (exactly one goal)23.8%
Loss40.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
0-211.1%
0-110.8%

Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC stats

Flint Town United and GAP Connah S Quay FC recent form

newest first
Flint Town United DLLLLD
GAP Connah S Quay FC WWWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Flint Town United and GAP Connah S Quay FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Flint Town United record

  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

GAP Connah S Quay FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Flint Town United wins 1Draws 8GAP Connah S Quay FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-26Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League0-2
2025-08-25GAP Connah S Quay FCFlint Town UnitedWales Premier League3-2
2025-03-11GAP Connah S Quay FCFlint Town UnitedPremier League4-0
2025-01-25Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League2-1
2024-12-26GAP Connah S Quay FCFlint Town UnitedPremier League7-2
2024-08-26Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-1
2023-12-09Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCWelsh Cup0-3
2022-12-31Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-0
2022-12-26GAP Connah S Quay FCFlint Town UnitedPremier League2-0
2022-10-18GAP Connah S Quay FCFlint Town UnitedLeague Cup2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Flint Town United vs GAP Connah S Quay FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 19.2%, draw 23.7%, away 57.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 5.00 3.80 1.57
1xBet 4.97 3.76 1.58
Bet365 4.50 3.80 1.57
BetVictor 4.20 3.40 1.50
Betano 4.60 3.85 1.60
Betfair 4.75 3.90 1.57
Dafabet 4.70 4.10 1.64
Marathonbet 4.90 3.76 1.56
Pinnacle 4.99 3.98 1.60
SBO 4.37 3.58 1.57
Superbet 4.45 3.90 1.63
Unibet 4.60 3.55 1.60
William Hill 4.80 3.60 1.65

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.70 ▲ +0.95
X 3.80 ▲ +0.30
2 1.58 ▼ -0.28

4 snapshots recorded, from .