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Wales Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 6

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin

2 – 1 Full time

43′K. OwenJ. Jones
46′L. ReesD. Hawkins
46′H. ThomasB. Ahmun
58′D. Hawkins
59′G. WaltersJ. Wilson
59′J. OwenC. Twose
61′J. Wilson
66′D. JohnK. Georgievsky
66′D. Horgan-EvansJ. Jones
67′R. PiperL. Ware
68′D. Rees
82′D. ReesB. Phillips
82′L. PhillipsK. Parker
90′C. Saunders

Bridge Meadow Stadium, HaverfordwestReferee: N. Pratt

Haverfordwest County AFC 53%
Draw 26%
Trefelin 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHaverfordwest County AFCDrawTrefelin
Model49.1%29.7%21.2%
Market54.8%24.6%20.7%
Final53.3%25.8%20.8%
Edge-5.7%+5.1%+0.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Haverfordwest County AFC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.85.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Haverfordwest ↓ / Trefelin → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 8% 1 13% 14% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Haverfordwest County AFC and Trefelin expected goals

Haverfordwest County AFC 1.41
Trefelin 0.85

Total expected goals: 2.26

Haverfordwest County AFC and Trefelin attack and defence ratings

Haverfordwest County AFC

Attack 0.62 -38%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Trefelin

Attack 0.58 -42%
Defence 1.50 +50%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin: result vs prediction

Haverfordwest County AFC 2 – 1 Trefelin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Haverfordwest County AFC 53.3% 1.87 -5.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.6% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score No 55.5% 1.80 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.2% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.9% 1.96 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Haverfordwest County AFC53.3%
Draw25.8%
Trefelin20.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.4%
Under 2.560.6%
Both teams to scoreYes44.5%
No55.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.2%
12 (either side)74.2%
X2 (draw or away)46.7%
Handicap -1Haverfordwest County AFC win24.8%
Push (exactly one goal)24.3%
Loss50.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
1-013.5%
0-011.7%

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin stats

Haverfordwest County AFC and Trefelin recent form

newest first
Haverfordwest County AFC LLLLLL
Trefelin DLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Haverfordwest County AFC and Trefelin going into this match

league record before kick-off

Haverfordwest County AFC record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Trefelin record

  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.8%, draw 24.6%, away 20.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.70 3.70 4.10
1xBet 1.59 3.80 4.82
Bet365 1.60 3.90 4.20
BetVictor 1.53 3.40 4.00
Betano 1.75 3.70 4.25
Betfair 1.62 3.80 4.40
Dafabet 1.72 3.80 4.50
Marathonbet 1.57 3.80 4.75
Pinnacle 1.67 3.85 4.52
SBO 1.66 3.39 4.00
Superbet 1.71 3.65 4.30
Unibet 1.66 3.45 4.40
William Hill 1.67 3.60 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.66 ▲ +0.02
X 3.70 ▼ -0.10
2 4.40 ▼ -0.15

2 snapshots recorded, from .