Holywell
vs
Trefelin
1 – 1 Full time
| 48′ | Holywell | ||
| 61′ | L. Phillips | ||
| 67′ | L. PhillipsD. Horgan-Evans | ||
| 72′ | J. SconceO. Davies | ||
| 72′ | J. ReedM. Winslade | ||
| 82′ | H. Morris | ||
| 90′ | F. YonsianF. Murtas | ||
| 90′ | R. PiperB. Aman |
Holywell vs Trefelin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Holywell vs Trefelin
| Probability | Holywell | Draw | Trefelin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.4% | 21.1% | 29.4% |
| Market | 34.5% | 25.3% | 40.2% |
| Final | 38.2% | 24.2% | 37.5% |
| Edge | +14.9% | -4.1% | -10.8% |
Why Holywell
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.79.
- The market prices Holywell below the model: +14.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Holywell and Trefelin expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.11
Holywell and Trefelin attack and defence ratings
Holywell
Trefelin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Holywell vs Trefelin: result vs prediction
Holywell 1 – 1 Trefelin
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Holywell vs Trefelin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holywell | 38.2% | 2.62 | +14.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.8% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holywell | 38.2% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Trefelin | 37.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.9% |
| No | 24.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Holywell win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Holywell vs Trefelin stats
Holywell and Trefelin recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Holywell and Trefelin going into this match
Holywell record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Trefelin record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Holywell vs Trefelin head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Holywell vs Trefelin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 25.3%, away 40.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.90 | 3.65 | 2.05 |
| 1xBet | 2.73 | 3.48 | 2.24 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.55 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.65 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.58 | 3.52 | 2.28 |
| Pinnacle | 2.64 | 3.61 | 2.33 |
| SBO | 2.69 | 3.13 | 2.08 |
| Superbet | 2.37 | 3.80 | 2.47 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .