Penybont
vs
Colwyn Bay
1 – 0 Full time
| 13′ | J. LekoO. Pritchard | ||
| 20′ | R. HillE. Cann | ||
| 28′ | O. Pritchard | ||
| 31′ | E. Vaughan | ||
| 40′ | E. Roberts | ||
| 41′ | C. Bratley | ||
| 54′ | L. Robles | ||
| 64′ | A. DaviesA. Moore | ||
| 68′ | T. Walker | ||
| 71′ | PenybontA. Baker | ||
| 72′ | T. WalkerM. Manga | ||
| 75′ | M. HillL. Sirrell | ||
| 85′ | J. DaviesJ. Kenny | ||
| 90′ | J. Kenny |
Penybont vs Colwyn Bay overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penybont vs Colwyn Bay
| Probability | Penybont | Draw | Colwyn Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.0% | 31.2% | 26.8% |
| Market | 43.7% | 30.6% | 25.7% |
| Final | 43.3% | 30.7% | 26.0% |
| Edge | -1.7% | +0.6% | +1.1% |
Why Penybont
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.95.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penybont and Colwyn Bay expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Penybont and Colwyn Bay attack and defence ratings
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penybont vs Colwyn Bay: result vs prediction
Penybont 1 – 0 Colwyn Bay
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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- Briton Ferry v Airbus UK — match page
- Holywell vs Trefelin — team news & stats
- The New Saints vs Barry Town
Before and after this match
Penybont vs Colwyn Bay markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 43.3% | 2.31 | -1.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 43.3% |
| Draw | 30.7% | |
| Colwyn Bay | 26.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.4% |
| No | 54.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 58.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | |
| 0-0 | 12.2% |
Penybont vs Colwyn Bay stats
Penybont and Colwyn Bay recent form
| Penybont |
DDWWWD |
| Colwyn Bay |
WLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penybont and Colwyn Bay going into this match
Penybont record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Colwyn Bay record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Penybont vs Colwyn Bay head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Colwyn Bay | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Penybont | Colwyn Bay | Wales Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Colwyn Bay | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Colwyn Bay | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 5-4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Penybont | Colwyn Bay | Wales Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-16 | Penybont | Colwyn Bay | Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2024-02-03 | Colwyn Bay | Penybont | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-25 | Colwyn Bay | Penybont | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-09 | Penybont | Colwyn Bay | Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penybont vs Colwyn Bay odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 30.1%, away 26.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 2.96 | 3.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 2.75 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.06 | 2.96 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 2.99 | 3.64 |
| Superbet | 2.07 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 2.90 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .